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Thursday, May 16, 2013
Keystone's SPXA150R Indicator Signals Significant Market Top
The SPXA150R is one of Keystone's Short-Term Market Signals. As price moves above 80%, the markets are becoming overextended. At 85% very strongly overextended and buying protection or bringing on shorts is the prudent course of action. At 90% and higher, the markets are at frothy levels and the markets can be comfortably shorted. This does not mean the indexes cannot run higher, as evidenced by the continued strong upside in the broad indexes over the last few days, but it does mean the market top is at hand. The red circles show the significant market tops and they all occur at the elevated SPXA150R levels. At 93.60 now, this is an obscenely high level and is identifying a significant market top. The green circles show market bottoms. Projection is a market sell off ahead; the question is how far will markets correct? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
so much complacency these days.... reminds me of my old grandfather :) ...He's cold and dead now, just like SPX 500 today ... :) hey KS, if markets don't come down today, I doubt they will come down tomorrow in the OPEX day ...it's not impossible, but less possible! And with that boillinger bands take a look at monthly, weekly and lower period charts ...the upper BB was punched and slashed. A week closing like that (on weekly chart) is inviting for anything else in this world but getting long here ... Also Keltner bands... smashed.
a true bullish orgy, say no more. :) although I've expected a more parabolic move, this one is quite promising for the next days/weeks.
The bulls are invited to mark today and tomorrow to march some 30-50 points, it would be the best set-up for something glorious! :)
It's all perception. If the financial media is treating the story of the day like the end of the world, the markets go down; if they're flippant, the markets go sideways or up. The interesting thing is that they can do with almost anything. For months, the markets chattered along like the debt ceiling was going to mark the death knell of the markets. It turned out to not be that big of a deal. They simply pushed it back. Now, they're saying the deficit has decreased by 32% ---you don't have to believe that--- and it's bought them more time. Suddenly, the employment numbers are picking up, almost paradoxically. I know more people out of work now than ever before. Perhaps the dark cloud hovers only over my part of the country and everyone else has moved on to their morning martini. But the big spook that frightens the bulls and emboldens the bears need not be necessarily genuine. There's the Benghazi scandal and the IRS scandal. Tempest in the teapot? Perhaps, but scandal is equal to how much of a deal you want to make about it. In a market where there's blood in the water, sharks are hunting for the slightest sign of weakness. Soon enough, they'll find it.
The two key items that hurt the bears are the BOJ and commodities. When commodities rolled over in February that is a sure sign for lower markets but it did not happen. The easy money flooding into divvy stocks overpowered the negativity in the commodity sector, and still is. The BOJ easing hit the after burners as Japan strongly ratcheted up the easing talk in February and then in early April verbally talking down the yen. The new all-time high in the SPX and current highs are all due to the weaker yen. The commodity weakness should come home to roost, unless the easy money decides commodities are in vogue again and they are pumped artificially higher. Interesting times.
at ma200 it's also a killer chart.... so much stocks above their 200 ma ...wow! http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R 93.40% are above 200 ma... such a perfect set-up! :)
Yep, this is a comfortable level to short from but unfortunately Keystone's index shorts are entered at lower prices. The back-half of May and June should be very wild times ahead.
so much complacency these days.... reminds me of my old grandfather :) ...He's cold and dead now, just like SPX 500 today ... :)
ReplyDeletehey KS, if markets don't come down today, I doubt they will come down tomorrow in the OPEX day ...it's not impossible, but less possible!
And with that boillinger bands take a look at monthly, weekly and lower period charts ...the upper BB was punched and slashed.
A week closing like that (on weekly chart) is inviting for anything else in this world but getting long here ...
Also Keltner bands... smashed.
a true bullish orgy, say no more. :)
although I've expected a more parabolic move, this one is quite promising for the next days/weeks.
The bulls are invited to mark today and tomorrow to march some 30-50 points, it would be the best set-up for something glorious! :)
V.
The OpEx move is typically the bullishness from Monday into Wednesday although volume should be stronger tomorrow at the open and the close.
DeleteIt's all perception. If the financial media is treating the story of the day like the end of the world, the markets go down; if they're flippant, the markets go sideways or up. The interesting thing is that they can do with almost anything. For months, the markets chattered along like the debt ceiling was going to mark the death knell of the markets. It turned out to not be that big of a deal. They simply pushed it back. Now, they're saying the deficit has decreased by 32% ---you don't have to believe that--- and it's bought them more time. Suddenly, the employment numbers are picking up, almost paradoxically. I know more people out of work now than ever before. Perhaps the dark cloud hovers only over my part of the country and everyone else has moved on to their morning martini. But the big spook that frightens the bulls and emboldens the bears need not be necessarily genuine. There's the Benghazi scandal and the IRS scandal. Tempest in the teapot? Perhaps, but scandal is equal to how much of a deal you want to make about it. In a market where there's blood in the water, sharks are hunting for the slightest sign of weakness. Soon enough, they'll find it.
ReplyDeleteThe two key items that hurt the bears are the BOJ and commodities. When commodities rolled over in February that is a sure sign for lower markets but it did not happen. The easy money flooding into divvy stocks overpowered the negativity in the commodity sector, and still is. The BOJ easing hit the after burners as Japan strongly ratcheted up the easing talk in February and then in early April verbally talking down the yen. The new all-time high in the SPX and current highs are all due to the weaker yen. The commodity weakness should come home to roost, unless the easy money decides commodities are in vogue again and they are pumped artificially higher. Interesting times.
Deleteat ma200 it's also a killer chart.... so much stocks above their 200 ma ...wow!
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R
93.40% are above 200 ma... such a perfect set-up! :)
V.
Yep, this is a comfortable level to short from but unfortunately Keystone's index shorts are entered at lower prices. The back-half of May and June should be very wild times ahead.
Delete1510's (1504-1518) would be a good level for you as break-even or profit on those shorts?
DeleteV.
Thanks, and keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteSlightly off topic, but gas prices here did a moonshot over the last week or two.
ReplyDeleteMoved from $3.30 to $3.90, almost 20% in a couple weeks.
Everything comes with a price, Mr. Bernanke.