The drama for the week reaches a crescendo in one hour's time when the Monthly Jobs Report hits at 8:30 AM EST. The consensus is 145K jobs (last month, March data, was 88K) with a steady unemployment rate at 7.6%. The revisions to last month's numbers are important. Also, watch the hours worked (34.6 last month), hourly earnings (0.0% last month) and labor participation rate (63.3% last month). Since the disappointing jobs number last month at a paltry 88K, on the bear side, companies have reported weaker sales and the sequester cuts continue to affect companies negatively. On the bullish side, Jobless Claims hit a five-year low yesterday so although companies may not be hiring, they appear to not be firing either. Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg data is released at 10 AM so markets will pivot on that news.
Commodities are up strongly again today wiping out Wednesday's dramatic drops. Futures are idling ahead of the jobs numbers. The weaker volatility, with VIX dropping under 14, creates bullishness for markets as evidenced yesterday. For the SPX today starting at 1598, the bulls only need to see positive futures and the SPX will be moving up through 1600 after the opening bell today. The bears need to push under 1583 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1584-1597 is sideways action today. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart so the bulls are clearly in charge. The 10-year yield sits at 1.63%-1.64%. The Jobs Report will tell the story.
Note Added 8:35 AM: The Jobs Report sends the markets violently higher with the S&P futures now up +11. There are 165K jobs with a 7.5% (lowest since December 2008) rate. Hourly earnings are up 0.2% compared to flat last month but hours worked are 34.5 lower than last month. Labor participation rate remains flat at 63.3%. The big push higher in markets is due to the revisions. Last month's paltry 88K is revised to 138K and February was revised from 268K to 332K. The 332K is a multi-year high. The 10-year yield jumps to 1.69% as money runs into equities. S&P's are now +12, the Dow +110 and Nas +23. Looks like SPX 1600 is a done deal this morning. The bulls are benefiting on good news as well as bad news. The bad news is met with the realization that the Fed and BOJ will only increase their money printing so all news is viewed positively. Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's, so it looks like the breach of 1580 should lead to the 1620's.
Note Added 8:50 AM: S&P's +11. Dow +106. Nasdaq +21. Crude oil 95.22. The 10-year yield is now at 1.70% regaining this psychological level. Gold 1465. Dollar/yen 99.07 (higher dollar/yen = weaker yen = higher equities). The euro is 1.3047 dropping back under 1.31.
Note Added 9:35 AM: The broad indexes are up strongly, the whistles and horns are sounding for SPX 1600, the first time it has printed in history. The data at 10 AM should create a pivot. The markets will need time to settle out this morning. SPX now moving towards 1614 with the shorts throwing in the towel. VIX is 12.85 under 13. TRIN is 0.65 confirming the uber bullishness.
a lot of bulls will cry out at the end of this month ..anyway :) it's only money :D ....
ReplyDeletein some cases borrowed money :D ....
May '13 will end below 1536 on spx.
V. :)
V, how can you be so sure of your dates and predictions? Everyone always think market will go down because it's topping! I don't see how, we all flooded with good economic reports and data plus with Fed protection. The Fed will certainly not let the market crash because they too will lose money...right?
DeleteA,
DeleteI have a very good reason for proposing those target in time-price.
I can't tell you more details, you can consider that I have a good friend from my country that works as a senior trader in a top 5 US investment bank - is it enough ?No? I thought so ... sometimes I chat with him on Yahoo mess....
May will witness a mad, mad rally but , be careful, May'13 will be full of surprises!
You know latin? "Caveat emptor" = the buyer should beware. The opposite is "caveat vendor" (the seller should beware). Those are principles from commercial law.
In may'13 "caveat emptor" should be in all the minds of those who buy at those levels!
A, in May'13 it's fools' gold ... wait for a correction to buy, at least 1520 if not 1460-1485.
Allow yourself some rest until first half of June'13!
You'll thank me , believe it!
V.
@ A:
Deletewant some targets for a real toping process?
18 may - 19 june 2013 - 1645-1655.
after the crash targets for buying longs/stocks: 1460-1485
All values are on cash, not futures.
All those that are buying now are just somes cows, not bulls, to buy at those levels ....
V.
U said may 2013 will end below 1536 and den say target for top from 18th may to 19jun is 1645-1655?? so which is which?
Deleteend of may at below 1536 after reaching that top.
Deletemaybe the period until 19 june is way too extended.
anyway this kind of movement on such volume of participation is far from credible.
V.
Look...
DeleteNobody here should take as solid rock what I'm saying here. it's my opinion and markets are a tricky place.
this is the best thing I can cite now from KS
:
"Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. "
Don't listen to me , I might be a mad man or some idiot, ok ?
Just ignore what I've said here.
V.
There are a lot of plates in the air right now so anything can happen. The lower volatility with VIX now under 13 helps the bulls today. That is a big launch at the open, 17 handles in the SPX in 8 minutes.
ReplyDeleteI don't think there are many who doubt that the market will go down, but it's not going to be in the near future (this month, maybe not even this year). It's a liquidity problem. There's too much money on the sidelines that will buy any dip, any pullback. When you start to hear word that the Fed's going to stop printing, look out for the drop. It's going to be a big one, but that's simply not going to happen this month, maybe not even this year.
ReplyDeleteDear Shane,
DeleteWait for the end of May and the first half of June.
V.
Hi V your predictions are good so far, you said:
ReplyDeleteThen we have a down 4 wave (target not known but should not exceed the top of wave 2).
Then we have an exhausted up wave 5 that should reach 1600- 1615.
In addition: after that an ABC of sideways movement and after that a little bit of downside rumble :). I don't know if down to 1266 - 1107 or lower :).
''Then we have an exhausted up wave 5 that should reach 1600- 1615.''
Deleteyes you're right, I've said that according to the technical profile of that moment.
now seems like I was dead wrong.
oh, and to steal your reply: maybe I'll be dead wrong too now :) ....
Cheers and enjoy the up movement :D
V.
A lot of TA types have had targets of 1620, close enough for gummit work.... but the VIX is far from an extreme, so is this the top or just the start of another leg higher?
ReplyDeleteAt this juncture it is likely another near-term top but it may take a day or three to burn off the energy. May should be an eventful month.
ReplyDelete