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Friday, April 26, 2013

NYMO NYSE McClellan Oscillator Daily Chart Signals Market Top

The red circles show the market tops and green circles show market bottoms. The double circles are key reversals.  What do you think will happen?  Market bottoms occur when the NYMO drops under -40. The important mid-November bottom occurred at -90, once that hit it was a key indicator to feel comfortable buying the market long. Likewise the other green circles.  Market tops are signaled when NYMO moves above the +30 or +40 level, however, the tops have gotten sloppy over the last months.  Note that tops are now occurring from about +10 and higher. The central banker intervention creates distortions in all markets these days and may be the cause of tops occurring at lower NYMO levels.

 Nonetheless, at +36 now, and close enough for government work, a market top is occurring right now.  Sure a spurt higher can occur, especially if the GDP number this morning is happy, but this will only send the NYMO higher to bring it closer to reversing. Projection is a market top is forming now and a reversal in the broad indexes should occur moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

 Note Added 4/27/13 at 5:55 AM:  The NYMO prints 18.49 on Friday, dropping lower from the 36-ish high shown in the chart above.  Therefore, the market top may have been identified on Friday. Monday will tell the tale and is shaping up to be a key market day. Even if the bulls run higher early next week, and the NYMO prints a day or two of higher prints at 40-ish, this only sets in motion a new market top to reverse.  If long the markets, caution is warranted and downside protection should already be in place.
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4 comments:

  1. ArnieApril 26, 2013 at 12:22 PM

    thanks for the chart, haven't looked at NYMO in a while!!!

    could you maybe give some insights on the $CRB? It's been a while, especially since it appears to have found a (temporary) bottom at 280..., close to the 275 danger level of (serious!?) deflation.

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  2. Keystone SpeculatorApril 27, 2013 at 6:01 AM

    Okay, maybe the Inflation-Deflation Indicator is due for an update, or a commodities chart or two. Copper and commodities are one of the big disappointments for market bears since these leaders should have dragged the SPX lower, as it has for every time in the past, but has not. This action clearly shows that equities only remain buoyant due to the Fed and BOJ.

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    Replies
    1. ArnieApril 28, 2013 at 1:03 AM

      thanks!!! I know, but who gives a "peeep" about copper etc when there's free-money every where, and when even the CBers are stocking up on stocks.... total reality/market-distortion... reality will catch up, but the market can stay so much longer irrational than one can bear (pun intended).

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  3. Main StreetAugust 2, 2013 at 6:42 PM

    Do you know where I can download daily NYMO values for the past couple years?

    ReplyDelete

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