Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 4/9/13; Wholesale Trade

China data was a non-event overnight. German exports fall since Draghi is not debasing the euro like all the other major nations are debasing their currencies. The euro is at 1.3045. Chairman Bernanke's speech last evening did not produce any notable outcome although he remains concerned about the banks. AA earnings were in line although as with most every company, top line revenue is light. The NFIB Small Business Optimism numbers are on tap in about one hour. Wholesale Trade hits at 10 AM so that may create a market stutter step this morning. The 3-Year Note Auction is at 1 PM.

The bulls mount a comeback from Friday through yesterday. SOX 423.90 is very important today and the semiconductors are now above this level which is a big win for bulls.  If the SOX stays above 423.90 and the SPX stays above 1563, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the long side today. VIX 14.42 remains a key bull-bear line in the sand. The drop in volatility yesterday helped fuel the bull recovery. Ditto the TRIN that collapsed from the neutral 1.00 to a closing print at 0.62. Typically a very low number for the TRIN requires a bounce back which would create market selling. For the VIX, watch the S/R levels at 14.42 (market danger signal), 13.56 (50-day MA), 13.01 (20-day MA) and 12.50 to gauge market direction.

The tight BB's on the SPX daily chart foretell a big move coming over the next few days, either to the 1580's, or to the 1530's. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. The streak of consecutive down-up-down-up days in the SPX continues, now at 14 days. A down day today would extend the streak to 15 days. SPX S/R is 1576.09 (all-time high), 1573.66 (intraday high for 2013 and previous week's high), 1571, 1570.25 (all-time closing high and closing high for 2013), 1569, 1565, 1564, 1563, 1561, 1557.95 (20-day MA and middle BB), 1556, 1553, 1551, 1548, 1546.50 (200 EMA on the 60-minute chart).  Many of the market relationships involving the dollar, euro, copper, commodities, oil, etc..., are twisted and unreliable due to the central banker intervention, so each day provides a new surprise. In a nutshell, watch SOX 423.90, VIX 14.42 and SPX 1563 to gauge market direction. S&P futures are positive by a couple of points so the early indication is favoring the bulls and for Keybot to flip to the long side.

Note Added 7:31 AM:  NFIB Business Optimism shows a lack of optimism, dropping under the 90 level. Businesses have a weak view moving forward for the months ahead and are not enthusiastic about hiring any new workers. The indicator was starting to show signs of life but this reading shows an ongoing business malaise remaining in place.