Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 4/23/13; Housing Data; AAPL; YUM

Futures are jumpy this morning all over map, down seven, back to flat, down again, then flat, now up. Earnings releases are coming at a steady clip now, and beating the EPS estimates since the bar's were lowered, however, note the continuing trend for a couple quarters or more now with weak top line revenue. Plain and simple, companies are meeting EPS on the back's of the employees, squeezing more work out of the existing employees, and continuing to cut expenses. In a robust strong recovery, the top lines should be growing strongly, which requires expansion and new hiring, leading to EPS beats. Instead, the employees are whipped into producing more with less. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

China's PMI data disappointed last evening and is causing stress in the commodities, copper and materials markets.  The France PMI is better than expected but Germany, and Europe in general, is worse. The euro dropped under 1.30 as the weaker picture for Europe emerges. Bank of Spain says the GDP will remain weak moving forward. The dollar/yen is 98.79 off the highs above 99 yesterday. Crude oil is 88.60 hanging around the sticky 88 number where an important up or down decision must be made. The 10-year yield drops to 1.66% today, lows not seen since December of last year. Germany's 10-year yield drops under 1.20% briefly, a historic low, as Japan's easy money chases European bonds.

NFLX earnings were robust last evening, TXN in-line. DD, UTX and others this morning all appear in line, however, as illustrated above, top line revenue remains challenged. TRV has everyone bulled-up today, the stock is up over 5% pre-market, and it missed on the top line. Today AAPL and YUM are key. Apple earnings will impact the tech sector and broad markets and YUM is a key proxy for China. The housing sector is in focus this morning with the FHFA Index at 9 AM then the New Home Sales at 10 AM. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also at 10 AM so expect the markets to pivot. Especially since the Existing Home Sales yesterday disappointed. The 2-Year Note Auction is at 1 PM.

Technically, the 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart so the bulls rule for the hours and days ahead. Ditto the SPX above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1556. The SPX begins today at 1562.50, the bulls need to touch the 1566 handle to ignite an upside acceleration, only three or four points higher. Futures are up four right now set to target this 1566 resistance.  The bears need to push under 1548 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1549-1565 is sideways action today. Semiconductors, volatility and financials are dictating market direction right now. The bulls need to push SOX above 424.00 and or the VIX under 14.15, and it will be a big bull party today. If the SOX moves above 424.00, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the long side. The bears need to push XLF under 17.97 to gain downside market momo.  In a nutshell, SOX 424, VIX 14.15, XLF 17.97, and SPX 1566 and 1548 dictate market direction today. Markets may remain jumpy through the 10 AM pivot then perhaps settle ahead of the key bellwether AAPL and YUM reports this afternoon.

Note Added 8:12 AM:  S&P futures jump to up six now.  Note the dollar/yen at 98.94 compared to 98.79 only minutes ago. The BOJ easing weakens the yen, the dollar/yen moves higher, and U.S. equities move higher. If dollar/yen moves above 99 and heads higher, the bulls will rule the markets today and perhaps for a couple days forward. So watch the dollar/yen closely today. The central bankers are in control of the markets.

Note Added 9:13 PM: Dollar/yen 99.14. S&P's +7.