Mortgage Applications are up this week but the overall lower trend remains, and a leading indicator of home sales, the loan request numbers, drop. Oil Inventories are at 10:30 AM, the 10-Year Note Auction is 1 PM and the big show today, the FOMC Minutes are released at 2 PM EST. President Obama will release his budget as well, two months late. Notable earnings releases are BBBY, KMX, FDO, FAST, RT and TITN which all provide gauges on the economy. Markets may idle today ahead of the FOMC drama this afternoon. The bulls erased all the losses from the Friday Jobs Report. The Fed and BOJ have trained everyone well; no one remains that expects a market sell off. The short-sellers have given up. This complacent behavior is verified by the CPC put/call and the low VIX.
Interestingly, the SPX blew up through the all-time closing high at 1570.25 yesterday, but pulled back in the last hour of trading to close under, unable to print a new all-time closing high. The Dow Industrials continue to print new all-time highs as the central banker money pumps the dividend stock bubble and perceived safety play's bubbles higher. The all-time intraday high at 1576.09 from 2007 remains in place. The SPX begins today at 1568.61, resistance above is 1570.25, 1573.89 (new high for 2013) and 1576.09. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart so the bulls are in charge. The bulls need to touch the SPX 1574 handle and it will be off to the races higher and a new all-time high above 1576.09 will be guaranteed. The bears need to push under 1561 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1562-1573 is sideways action today. Recent charts, such as the CPC put/call last evening and Nasdaq Mini COT Report this morning, as well as the ongoing negative divergence in the daily and weekly broad index charts, all point to a significant market sell off at hand. The only remaining question is if the all-time high at 1576.09 is taken out first, or not.
The new moon occurred about three hours ago so it will be interesting to see if the markets are weak moving through the new moon (reference the Other Market Signals page). North Korea is receiving attention since the new moon is the darkest period of the month and the best time to launch military operations. The bulls lit a fire under semiconductors to create the upside push in the broad indexes so watch SOX 424.00 today. Bulls need to stay above, bears below. VIX 14.40 and JJC (copper) 43.90 are also key. Keybot the Quant flipped long yesterday but it would not be at all surprising to see a whipsaw today back to the short side. Bulls need the VIX to remain under 14.40, and the SOX to remain above 424.00, while they push the JJC above 43.90, to receive upside fuel. Bears need to move the VIX above 14.40, and/or SOX under 424.00, while keeping JJC under 43.90, to receive downside fuel. The coming days and week or two should prove quite dramatic for markets. Stay close to the computer mouse, especially if long. In a nutshell, SOX 424.00, VIX 14.40, JJC 43.90 and SPX 1574 and 1561 will dictate market direction today. The market action will likely heat up in the final two hours of trading after the FOMC Minutes.
Note Added 9:02 AM: Unbelievable. The Fed mistakenly released the Minutes to certain individuals yesterday ahead of time so they just released them two minutes ago. We now live in a third world country. As usual, the insiders receive the information ahead of time. No wonder the markets rallied yesterday after lunch. It is nice to be a friend of the Fed. S&P futures are up +3 in this confusion.
Note Added 9:36 AM: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 1576.10 one penny above the old all-time high at 1576.09. FAST is down 4%. TITN down 16%. FDO down 1%. KMX up 0.8%. FAST, TITN and FDO do not foretell great things on the economy but traders do not care at this point, the Fed and BOJ says buy stocks without fear or worry. The 10-year yield is 1.78%, only a couple ticks higher, no real move up in yields despite the SPX now joining the all-time high club. TRIN in the 0.9's near neutral today so far.
Note Added 9:57 AM: New all-time high and HOD at 1576.60. Today will be interesting to see if a new all-time closing high prints above 1570.25.
Note Added 10:03 AM: New all-time high and HOD at 1578.27. TRIN is 0.94; should be down at 0.7 considering all the euphoria this morning.
Note Added 10:32 AM: New all-time high and HOD at 1579.98. TRIN is 1.07, now actually favoring bears today, go figure.
Note Added 11:00 AM: New all-time high and HOD at 1584.18. More short-covering coming in boosting markets higher. Markets melting-up. SOX up. VIX down. JJC down. So no change with the three main parameters for today. TRIN 1.15.
Note Added 11:12 AM: New all-time high and HOD at 1585.65. An upside orgy is in play with the Energizer Bunny continuing higher. SOX 436.19. VIX 12.41. JJC 42.64. TRIN 1.06. President Obama just spoke releasing his budget. The 10-year yield remains flat at 1.78%. Money is not moving from bonds to stocks. Easy Fed and BOJ money, and money fleeing Europe, are pumping markets higher, while the folks in bonds prefer to stay in bonds as the equity market wildness continues. Look at utilities, UTIL, now up over 522, truly remarkable. All these folks are buying figuring no matter what happens, they will receive a nice yield and all their money will be perfectly safe. A 3% to 5% yield will not matter when UTIL may be 20% lower a few weeks from now.
Note Added 11:38 AM: The new high occurred at 11:11 AM at 1585.65 so watch this number today. SOX 436.23. VIX 12.70 moving higher. JJC 42.73. TRIN 1.02. The 10-year yield is up a tick to 1.79%; the auction is at 1 PM EST.
Cyprus should hit the markets in the head today life a nerf bat, followed by the moon cycle, we may see the market rise a bit then fall. If the market goes red after hitting it's new highs yesterday it should provide the TA analysis moving forward for a top and then a sell off. I think the overbot conditions building since January will cause a a day maybe when the market loses 100-200 points and then the commenters will return to the boards until the moon goes back to the dark side.
ReplyDeleteFunny stuff Anon. Perhaps spending all that time on something productive would be more prudent? LOL Your posts are enjoyed, keep them coming.
DeleteThe Fed released the Minutes early yesterday so they had to release them a few minutes ago. The market craziness continues.
ReplyDeleteUnder what rule or law do the feds have to release the minutes other than when they want to? I am not siding with the feds but they are a renegade organization from the start. Like being angry with the mafia for not picking up the garbage on the scheduled times they usually do. The feds are an outlaw crime syndicate that installed themselves into our country, in the words of eric theodore Cartman, "I dooowhat I wan.."
ReplyDeleteAnd it is better than that, the politicians that receive the minutes ahead of time are not accountable as far as trading goes in general, and they have lots of insider information they deal with daily.
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ReplyDeleteSee you on the dark side of the moon...you bears must be insane right now. All your TA is garbage.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the VIX is at about a 5 year low.
ReplyDeleteVIX printed 5 and 6 year lows in March at 11. But yes, VIX at 12.37 is at the 5-6 year lows. This is key support area for VIX.
ReplyDeleteWow, I bet there will be a trimming here of profits soon. I was start some short positions then cover them tomorrow and then start them again...
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ReplyDeletelooks like a 5th wave to me, can go as high as it want's too... again the market humbled me and my counts... back to the drawing board...
ReplyDeleteI've actually come to use Mr. Nah-nah-na-boo-boo as a bellwether (the anonymous and obnoxious guy that only comes to the forum on strong bull market days to tell us what a crock TA is). Usually a short while after he starts flapping his gums the market reverses and he shuts up for a while. I'm ready to start using him as an indicator. At first, I thought he was just annoying. Now, I'm like "thank you" I have my sign.
ReplyDeleteYup, Mr. Nah-nah-na-boo-boo is a bellwether, and he's annoying as well! - Ande
DeleteClearly it's a 5th wave.
ReplyDeleteThe first subwave 1 is already in the reversal zone (1578-1584 on sp500 futures ES-june'13). Let's see how the action goes.
From 1578-1584 subwave 2 of wave 5 should go down to 1540's (1542-1546).
Final target of 5th wave = 1640 (+/- 10 points).
All values are on SP500 futures ES-June 2013.
take care,
V.
I am hopefull that those headed my comments in the past about divergences spanking down price as opposed to being a mathematical outcome of the price itself.
ReplyDeleteYou will go broke trading divergences, trust me I did in my youth. And no, its not in a vaccuum. Divergences are like Elliot Wave they are so appealing to the psyche becuase they seem to foretell the future. They dont.
It would behove readers to go the the CBO website and read up on the vix. Once completed you will realize that standard S/R analysis cannot apply, again based on the math.
As an aside, it is more profitable to trade negative divergences in a uptrend. I cant take credit for that idea. Andrew Caldwell provided proof in his tomb on RSI.
The blatant disregard for the average investor is something I have not seen in my almost 40 years of trading.
To quote the late, great John Lennnon...."How do you (they) sleep at night/"
Still have your sign shane There is a blue moon over Kentucky and that should bring in the selling tomorrow.At this point the market is exhausted going up, it should go down. The Monkey threw the dart at the board, and all the short sellers are scratching their heads as it land on SPX 1588, when we all know the Tsunami wave BS was in 100 points ago on the dow. I would suggest using the CHIN as a brace indicator as you fall off your desk and lose your teeth. Watch a kiss back here, it should come down now that it has gone up. My lights are green which should lead to a nice red light tomorrow. It's a goon Moon, and that should bring in the short selling as Cyprus really should not be underestimated here as an island of the coast of Tibet. Come on guys, seriously, your TA is pathetic.
ReplyDeleteAs always, choose your poison. The shorter term calls (inverse ETF's) have not been good this year as the projection is for the markets to top and roll over, which remains the projection moving forward. The rolling tops are typically 2 to 3 months duration, this one is stubborn and longer running, 3 months already with new highs today. The divergences are used in speculative trading, which is what this site is, the most dangerous type of trading, since the goal is to call bottoms and tops. Trend-following is a much safer way to trade but less risk is lower returns, higher risk is higher returns--but also potential for higher losses, so it is a matter of what your risk tolerance is.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to play a very safe game, as mentioned here often, simply follow Keybot the Quant, that is the yin for the yang, Keybot is the safe side of the game. Keystone's calls are the dangerous side of the game.
One or several days never make a market, simply roll with the flow each day. The nature of markets right now are open to the possibility of a negative overnight event occurring as well so keep that in mind. The markets can open up in a lock limit down fashion on any given day forward, a very rare occurrence, but it happens, that's why the indexes have limits in place, and the current global situation, and craziness in Japan right now, should make you more cautious if long.
So if you enjoyed the upside, place protection and start scaling out, and give yourself a pat on the back for following the Fed. Do not become complacent as the CPC put/call illustrated last evening. Everyone is on the one side of the boat, partying with the Fed and BOJ. If you want to avoid risk to the greatest extent possible, simply follow along with Keybot.
''The nature of markets right now are open to the possibility of a negative overnight event occurring as well so keep that in mind.''
DeleteDid you know that on 15 April is the birthday of that crazi guy that's the dictator of North Korea?
Yes, it's his birtday (we will be 29 or 30 years) ... and north-koreeans will rejoice some fireworks... some balistic international fireworks :) ...
That was just a little message for those that feel waaaaay to complacent and bullish!
We will have great fireworks!
The best surprises are the ones when all US is asleep and Asia is trading ;) ....
So, a heartly "happy birthday and don't forget your Xanax and Valium!" to the little one from North Koreea!
I guess attacking Guam or South Koreea is bulish?
Guess not! :)
V.
sorry for awful bad english .... i've written the message on the run :D
DeleteV.
Every once in a while the market smacks one (me) hard in the face. Then it's time to re-assess and wonder what and where it went wrong. Happens to the best, and has to happen to avoid complacency. At those moments the "told ya so's" are coming out of the woods again... typical. What ever the reason, what ever the underlying drivers, price is up and that's all that matters.
ReplyDelete