Markets start out weak today and the bears push the VIX above 14 but they quickly fall on their sword and run out of gas. The VIX is back below 14 and the SPX recovers now printing near all-time highs again. The all-time closing high, from yesterday, is 1593.61, and the all-time high is 1597.35. The HOD is 1595.61. TRIN is 1.42 firmly in the bear camp today despite the buoyancy in the major indexes. The 10-year yield dropped down to 1.63%-1.64% and now recovered to 1.68%; yields moving back up as the SPX recovered over the last hour.
VIX is at 13.77 right now and the 14.00 remains key moving forward. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullishness ahead but the 8 MA is sloping down currently with the 34 MA sloping upwards. As the SPX plays around at the all-time highs right now, the 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute charts remain agreeable to seeing price move sideways to sideways lower. The bulls remain in control and the markets are idling along ahead of the important Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon and the ECB Thursday morning.
Note Added 3:10 PM: VIX is 13.76 under the 14 bull-bear line crating market bullishness. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute charts so the bulls cruise along. With the high prints in the SPX over the last couple hours, the 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute charts continue to show negative divergence and would prefer to see the SPX move sideways to sideways lower. TRIN is 1.22 remaining bearish as it has all day long, staying above one, despite the buoyancy in the broad indexes. Tech and small caps are leading higher today which is a plus for bulls although tech is likely boosted by the joyousness over the AAPL bond offering. Volume remains light today only a smidge above yesterday's vapor volume, at about two-thirds of a day's average expected volume. The SPX is watched to see if new all-time highs print.
Note Added 3:27 PM: NYHL shows that as the broad indexes make new highs day after day, the number of new highs decrease and the number of new lows increase, which is a negative divergence. SPX fights across the 1595 which would be a new all-time closing high. Interestingly, the HOD is 1596.78 which is only 57 pennies away from printing a new all-time high.
Note Added 3:47 PM: SPX is coming up to look at the HOD and the all-time high.
Note Added 3:49 PM: SPX is up through the HOD and short of the all-time high at 1597.35. SPX is printing a HOD 1596.93, pennies away..... 1597.11 .... 1597.09...
Note Added 3:53 PM: HOD 1597.17.
Note Added 3:59 PM: SPX prints a new all-time high 1597.57, also a new all-time closing high at 1597.57. April prints as a positive month but Trannies, cyclicals and the RUT small caps had a down month. The Dow, SPX and Nasdaq are all closing at lofty highs. The bulls appear unstoppable. Sick earnings and economic data and new highs day after day in equities.
If the Fed issues its usual statement about keeping rates low until doomsday, that might register as a disappointment--IOW if the does isn't increased, diminishing returns on the present $85M monthly buy set in. Also, Cyprus is voting on caving in to the EU or not. The spineless politicos seem to be lining up to do anything to stay in the euro, but we can hope for a miracle vote to blow off EU demands...
ReplyDeleteon Cyprus vote , it was a positive one:
Deletehttp://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=d41e8aa5-e440-44df-b4ea-dd0ea0b74e95
on FED, the monthly amount will be increased , but not now, maybe in June '13, maybe in Autumn'2013...
:)
V.
The one item that went relatively unnoticed was when Chairman Bernanke said he would not attend Jackson Hole this year, typically this is in August. QE2 was hinted at from Jackson Hole and also Operation Twist and other policy changes receive a gentle nod at this time; Jackson Hole serves as a coming-out party for Fed changes. So Bernanke bowing out well ahead of time says he probably wants to start putting the madness to an end. But, traders did not read this into the statement since markets are unaffected. It is a head scratcher as to what will happen, it may be epic. The Fed will likely be a non-event, Bernanke will strive to be milk toast and it may come and go without fanfare, same program ongoing, no changes, nothing new. The ECB is the big mystery, and then also it is unclear exactly how markets will react on the news since the central bankers have the asset relationships twisted up in knots. It's a tough nut to crack.
Deletearnie, do you see an ending diagonal in play here for the spx?
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