SPX Support, Resistance (S/R) and Moving Averages for Trading the Week of 3/18/13

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are identified below. The bulls are charging towards new all-time highs but fell short from the all-time closing high by two points and the all-time high by 13 points thus far. The Dow Industrials, Transports and RUT (small caps) have all printed new all-time highs. The Nasdaq remains far below the 5K+ dot-com bubble highs so do not hold your breath for this anytime soon. Thus, all eyes are on the SPX and the new week of trading is pivotal; the SPX either places the new highs, or retreats. The 1563-1564 level is a gauntlet of resistance.  Above 1564 and new all-time highs are guaranteed. The bears must keep the SPX below 1563.

Last week, March OpEx week, the markets are up well over 80% of the time and that seasonality clearly played out last week. Several news events are dead-ahead. Italy and Cyprus are on the front burner. Housing Starts hit on Tuesday. The FOMC Rate Decision, Forecasts and Chairman Bernanke's Press Conference will create epic drama for the last two hours of trading on Wednesday. China PMI this week. The Continuing Resolution (CR) deadline is 3/27/13, only ten days away, but the band plays on and the wine is flowing like water. In addition, Good Friday is 3/29/31 and U.S. markets will be closed, and since the last day of the month, 3/31/13, is Sunday, Easter, the EOM and EOQ1 (end of month and end of Q1) occurs on Thursday, 3/28/13. There are only nine trading days remaining in March and only seven trading days before the CR.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 1561, the bulls need to touch the 1564 handle and it will be a wild bullish orgy higher with 1576 in the sights. The bears need to push the SPX under the strong 1556 support and that will provide some downside mojo to 1553 then 1548. A move through 1557-1563 is sideways action. The last week of March is typically up especially with window dressing on tap.  The last week is only four days long and the CR may throw a wrench into the bullish seasonality. But if the bullish seasonality plays out for the last week of March, 3/25/13 through 3/28/13, the market bears need to bring their 'A' game for this new week ahead, 3/18/13 through 3/22/13, otherwise, the bears may not get another bite of the apple until April when the SPX may be at 1580. For the Dow Industrials, watch the all-time closing high at 14539.14 (3/14/13) and all-time high at 14539.29 (3/14/13). The new week ahead will be historic for markets.

·         1576 (10/11/07 All-Time Intraday High: 1576.09)

·         1565 (10/9/07 All-Time Closing High: 1565.15)

·         1564 (3/15/13 Intraday HOD for 2013: 1563.62) (Previous Week’s High: 1563.62)

·         1563.62 Friday HOD

·         1563 (3/14/13 Closing High for 2013: 1563.23)

·         1561

·         1560.70 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

·         1557

·         1556

·         1555.74 Friday LOD

·         1553 (10/31/07 Top: 1552.76) (3/24/00 Top: 1552.87)

·         1552

·         1551

·         1548.90 (10-day MA)

·         1548

·         1547 (Previous Week’s Low:  1547.36)

·         1543

·         1531

·         1530.17 (20-day MA)

·         1528 (3/24/00 Closing Top: 1527.46)

·         1526.08 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)

·         1525

·         1524 (12/11/07 Top: 1523.57)

·         1521

·         1520

·         1518

·         1516

·         1514

·         1512

·         1509

·         1507.34 (50-day MA)

·         1505

·         1503

·         1500

·         1498 (12/26/07 Top: 1498.85)

·         1495

·         1489

·         1485

·         1481

·         1476

·         1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)

·         1472

·         1468

·         1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)

·         1465

·         1463.38 (20-week MA)

·         1461

·         1460

·         1459.43 (100-day MA)

·         1457

·         1456

·         1453

·         1450.21 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

·         1447

·         1446

·         1444

·         1441.68 (10-month MA)

·         1441

·         1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)

·         1438 (9/13/12 Fed Announces QE3 Infinity)

·         1435

·         1433

·         1431

·         1430 (12/12/12 Fed Announces QE4 Infinity and Beyond)

·         1429 (11/6/12 President Obama Election Top)

·         1427.08 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

·         1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63)

·         1424

·         1423.81 (200-day MA)

·         1422

·         1419

·         1416.58 (50-week MA)

·         1416

·         1414

·         1413

·         1409

·         1406 (5/29/08 HOD: 1406.32)

·         1404

·         1403 (9/6/12 ECB Announces OMT Bond-Buying Program)

·         1402

·         1399

·         1397

·         1394

·         1391