1100/920 (180) = +19.6% above 200-day MA
1150/1000 (150) = +15.0%
1220/1090 (130) = +11.9%
1350/1170 (180) = +15.4%
1370/1230 (140) = +11.4%
1420/1270 (150) = +11.8%
1470/1350 (120) = +8.9%
1561/1424 (137) = +9.6% (now)
You can bring up the daily chart over the last year and calculate more accurate numbers for further study. So the price move above the 200-day MA for the first seven pairs is from 8.9% to 20% above the 200-day MA. The March 2009 bottom was a key washout so the first few pairs are expected to be greater deviations. An expected height above the 200-day MA that marks a top is from 8% to 12% typically and the current move is approaching 10% above the 200-day. The handle moves above the 200-day are from 120 to 180 handles, so at about 140 handles well within the area where a reversion to the mean is needed. The projection is for a roll over of the broad indexes at any time with price eventually moving down to touch the 200-day MA, which is now at 1424 moving upwards. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
a good idea is to load shorts after (!) the top is set in (1576-1614) - so after a lower high is in place, after the top!!!
ReplyDeleteI think some remember what I've said a month or so ago ... spx 500 at above 1570 .... but don't get to greedy , the index is already too extended and it can extend some more maybe, it's true... but don't be greedy, like pigs :) ..like pigs that get slaughtered on Wall Street ...
this rally has 2 pivots as resistences : 1576 and 1614.
My good advice is to respect your own earnings and take the profits although the rally will maybe touch a point beyond 1600 ...
Take my good advice and protect some of the profits.
Also follow a H&S that will appear during the next 1-2 weeks (now a left shoulder is under construction).
It will announce the next target: somewhere between 1365 and 1425.
Follow good V.'s advice ....
V.
p.s. until FOMC of FED some downside will end the left shoulder and mark the neckline, after FOMC of FED the head (1593-1614 area)of H&S will terrify last living bears, and after that an almost equal to the head right shoulder will be marked (1590-1612)... Good luck!
The Mad Easter Bunny will come also this year :) ...What bunny?
Deletethe one with "Hey Joe Retailer, come to the dark side, we have cookies " :)
V.
The Cyprus money confiscation is rippling around the world currently, the S&P futures are down 17.
ReplyDeleteI know KS but only Monday, or maximum Tuesday, there will be some ramblings ...after that we have FOMC of FED and Ben's press conference... and until than some Europeean "leaders" to verbally calm the crowds that were subject of THEFT! ...cause this is not a TAX, it's a low level , IMF type, prowler-type THEFT !!!
DeleteAll this CypRIOT :) thing will only define on charts (as said) the left shoulder of a clear H&S pattern due to be drawn.
I know it is a very, very serious thing what happened cause Cyprus is a democracy,it's not Cuba or North Korea - although they acted the same way, not respecting the holy right or personal property! (in EU, where also Romania, my country, is part of, there is a limit of 100K euro guaranteed level of deposits... in Cyprus, on Saturday, they proved it that this "guaranteed limit" it's a LIE !).
I don't care that there were some dirty russian money in Cyprus ... they should have applied this seize measure only to deposits amounting more than 100K euro. No russian mafia will have only (!) BELOW 100K euro in a deposit (this russian guys work with millions euro or tens of millions euro, not below 100 K euro!).
Thus, they may have protected the small ones, the working people. Not one single russian gangster has one deposit below 100K euro!!!! C'mon!
On Saturday the right of property died, my dear KS, in the free world! These are not big words , it's just the reality (that really starts to suck!).
Cheers,
V.
p.s. possible necklines of H&S at : 1529 or 1489.
Yep, you cannot trust anything anymore, even your money in the bank. The States gave up on capitalism when the banks and GM were bailed out so everyone always expects bailouts now and it only worsens the economic health as time moves along. This is called 'moral hazard'. The current market prices may or may not be where they should be. There is no price discovery anymore. With the Fed pumping artificially floating things higher and keeping things elevated, no one knows by how much. So everyone is dancing while the music is playing but the music stops at some point. The Euro leaders are testing the waters, if no one is phased and people do not care about losing 10% of their money, that is a victory for Europe recovering but it would be hard to understand how regular folks would be happy about losing their money.
ReplyDelete