The indicators show pure sideways behavior and will not tip the hand as to which side is favored. Watch to see which side of th e50% level the RSI is on which provides a vital clue. Ditto the 50% level for the money flow and stochastics and the zero line for the MACD. The purple lines show the inverted H&S in play. If the SPX breaks through 1525-1526, then a test of the 1531 top for this year comes quickly, if that gives way, then the 1550-1565 is next. Monday's opening bell is critical. There is no economic data so the markets will likely be more susceptible to global news, so China, Japan, and/or Europe may provide some excitement overnight Sunday that determines the U.S. open. Of course, the 8 and 34 MA cross will immediately identify the winner when the bell rings. The 8 is above the 34 MA right now (by 78 pennies) which signals bullish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, watch the 8/34 MA cross during the first hour of trading on Monday to determine broad market direction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
JO: fundamentals
ReplyDeleteCOFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower on speculative selling tied to reports of good weather in Brazil and increased production in Colombia. London was lower on primarily speculative selling as Vietnam producers are not selling due to the Tet holiday. Prices for Arabica continue to work lower on ideas of big production. Bulls keep talking about the losses from rust in Central America and the bears keep noting that there is more than enough coffee being produced in other countries to cover the losses seen in Central America. For now, it looks like Central America could lose at least 5% of the total crop this year and more next year. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial showers for the developing crop. Production ideas remain big there, and also remain big in Vietnam even though producers there talk about the potential for 25% crop losses. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.669 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 129.29 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. GCA stocks are now 4.776 million bags, from 4.735 million last month.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 125.00 and 108.00 May. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 May, and resistance is at 143.00, 145.00, and 147.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2050, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2080, 2100, and 2130 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 177.00, 174.00, and 171.00 September, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00, and 186.00 September.
Excellent info MCAP, thanks for that. JO weekly chart remains set up with nice positive divergence across all indicators. JO daily chart fighting at the 20-day MA at 31.44, would not be surprised at a bull flag pop to test the 50-day at 32.64. Cannot rule out one more visit to 30, but overall looking good moving forward, it will be fun to watch this year. Keystone started drinking more coffee to help the long trade out.
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