The beat goes on. Yesterday was a drop then sideways churn. Today is up then sideways churn. The SPX maintains the sideways 1540-1565 range for the last month. The bulls need to touch 1565 to ignite the upside acceleration. The HOD is 1561.59 so pay attention to that number. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart so bulls are happy. VIX remains far under 14.70 at 13 and SOX far above 422 at 431 so the bulls are happy. Market leaders XLF and RTH, financials and retail sectors, respectively, are lagging the broad market today. Surprisingly, the TRIN is 1.00 smack-dab neutral today. With the indexes up as they are, the TRIN should be 0.90 or lower. Perhaps the bears are trying to mount a push for this afternoon. Copper is recovering today but JJC is flat. Commodities are stronger.
UTIL prints 501.28 today, a wild upside bull orgy; folks cannot buy perceived safety and dividend stocks fast enough. The Fed's money continues to create a new asset bubble in dividend stocks. The 10-year yield is drifting lower now at 1.91%, equity bear-friendly despite the higher markets today. RUT (small caps) are a hair red now. The most interesting news, in light of the European Bond Yield Summary posted this morning that highlighted Portugal, is Portugal restating and agreeing with the Dutch finance ministers comments from yesterday about Cyprus as a template. What does that tell you especially if you have over 100,000 euro's in Portugal banks? Watch the Portugal yield moving forward. Everyone is focused on the tame Italy and Spain yields (not blowing out), but Portugal may be the sneaky one and the next crisis. The euro is 1.2845. Miners are sold off today but remain attractive moving forward.
Note Added 3/26/13 at 2:52 PM: The SPX came back up to take out today's high listed above at 1561.59. This launches a thrust to over 1562 but price quickly retreated again. The HOD is now at 1562.05 so watch that number. Markets meander sideways. TRIN 1.00. VIX 12.89. SOX 432. The bulls are favored (except for the flat TRIN) and the 8 MA stays above the 34 MA on the 30-minute as well. The 10-year yield is 1.90%. So traders must be spending their lunch money on stocks since there is steady flow into Treasuries at the same time. Another odd day with bonds and stocks both up.
Note Added 3/26/13 at 3:18 PM: Another new intraday high for the SPX with a HOD now at 1562.54. The TRIN dropped to 0.90 providing bull juice. Both the Dow and the SPX are near yesterday's intraday highs but not yet able to punch above. The volume is shameful, only about 55% of a days average expected volume. Traders must have already left for Easter vacation. Other traders are likely choosing to wait and watch until the bank runs occur, now only one day away on Thursday. So the markets float upwards, the path of least resistance, on light volume. Price appears exhausted today and prone to roll over from the minute charts but if the bulls take out yesterday's highs on the Dow and SPX that would provide further juice and whip the bulls into a frenzy. The sideways churn continues. The SPX is moving through 1557-1562 for the last six hours, a five-point range.
KS, Crude Oil is up today, does it looks like some kind of sideway action to you?
ReplyDeleteThe WTIC crude oil 50-day MA is 94.48 so watch that as support, oil now over 96. A sideways vibe may take place through 91-96; 50-day MA on top and 200-day MA on the bottom of a range. See if oil drops back into this range, or not. The 96 hits the upper trend line on the weekly chart. Probably more sideways than anything.
DeleteI am ashamed of my dutch nationality right now... But trust me, I have lived in enough countries around the world to know that politicians are all the same. No matter if you live in socialistic Sweden, liberal Holland, conservative US or UK, fragmented SA, corrupt Russia, etc. It doesn't matter. They are all the same. Just hiding behind different name tags.
ReplyDeleteThe real problem is that those who have the real big accounts are able to shuffle their money to another country in the blink of an eye. 'Cause those with big accounts include the politicians themselves... Regular Joe who's been a thrifty saver all his life is the one who sees his account being whacked by 40%...
Arnie, Dijsselbloem's obviously not got the world's strongest backbone. And you should look into what he did to shareholders and others when he nationalized a bank called SNS Reaal, if you really want to dislike him. But anyone who knows their WWII history need never be ashamed of Dutch heritage.
Deletearnie, are you adding shorts at these levels?
ReplyDeleteNo, I am not getting a good read of the market right now. My trailing stop on my shorts kicked me out at 1545ish, and currently I am all cash sitting and waiting until this sideway mess resolves. Often it resolves higher (bull flag of 15-20 points may be forming), but I don't think I'll even chase that. 1575-1580 area, IF it get's there, may be a great area to scale in shorts. I do have a small buy signal, but again, not sure if it's worth chasing up here... When in doubt: stay out! That's what I am doing right now.
DeleteArnie, what about those stocks that are 52-wk low? Would you consider those?
Deletewhich do you mean? The ones KS pointed out recently? I am long MWW, since $5.10. I am also long MCP, bought at $5.70 initially averaged down with another badge of $5.30.
DeleteWLT and MT
DeleteCyprus has obviously pulled the markets into a correction today, its importance should not be overlooked. It will bring this market down, we might finish up only 100. I'd go short from 101 to 98...lol
ReplyDeleteTRIN is interesting today at 1.00. Now back down to 0.90 so the markets move higher. SPX 1562 is the high so the bulls will target that as they keep trying to attain the 1565. The 10-yr yield is now at 1.90%.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/cyprus-in-superhuman-effort-to-open-banks-thurs-2013-03-26?dist=countdown
ReplyDeletetoday is Tuesday, the cyprus banks will open in 2 days, on Thursday, not tomorrow, but the day after. That's exactly the day when final print of GDP is released and also the day with the biggest chunk of FED's free buxxxx floating here and there ... So, it's gonna be an interesting day ... Cypriot banks being dried in a huge bank run and SPX 500 blowing a new all time high ... :)
V.
Typo was fixed, that is correct, banks reopen on Thursday still one day away. Danke for paying attention V. This is one of those four-day trading weeks where the days become mixed up in the head. The trading week only has two more trading days remaining and the Thursday session will trade after seeing the bank runs. Interestingly, if Cyprus simply delays the opening until Friday, then the U.S. markets would not have to deal with things until Monday.
Deleteit's ok, can happen to anyone (to me happened a few times :D).
DeleteI'm very curious on Thursday about the final revision of US GDP q4/12... how come in the name of Lord first it was -0.1%, than revised to + 0.1% and now the estimation for q4/12 is ... +0.9% !!!
It will be an interesting day, with cypriot bank run , and a puffed US GDP and , of course, a large POMO from "chef" FED.
Thurday - a day with strong contradictory signals.
V.
I guess Cyprus was the cause for today's meltdown. So much trouble in the world, what are we going to do with the Cyprus crisis? I wonder if tomorrow there will be a sell off on profits? better check my computer generated trading robot that lives on the bottom of my shoe.
ReplyDeleteWhat meltdown?
ReplyDelete