Stock chart patterns and technical analysis (TA) explained simply. Disclaimer: This blog and all its contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade or invest based on any information seen on this blog. Please read Terms of Service. The K E Stone blog sites (Keybot the Quant) are blacklisted by Google, so enjoy the ad-free experience, and only use the Donate button when supporting the sites.
Pages
▼
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
SPX Daily Chart Illustrates Market Drama Over Last Six Months
Lots and lots of drama over the last one-half year but when it is all said and done, the SPX has only moved thru a 125 points sideways range 1340-1465. Today we are pressing up against the top of this sideways channel. The game changer in 2012 was on 7/26/12 when Draghi announced his support for the euro by all means necessary, the most important statement of the year last year. The ECB's OMT quantitative easing was announced at SPX 1403, then the Fed's QE3 Infinity at 1438. Then the triple top occurred and stocks rolled over but all eyes and ears were on the presidential election drama. President Obama was re-elected and the markets collapsed. A market bottom occurred in mid-November then Bernanke primed the pump again announcing QE4 Infinity and Beyond at SPX 1430 which resulted in a sell off. The Senate saved the day with a fiscal cliff resolution that the markets sniffed out on the last trading day of the year, Monday, 12/31/12. The House approved the fiscal cliff package on New Year's Day and the result was another wild upside orgy. The SPX has gained about 62 points, from 1400 to 1462 in two days, +4.4%. Price now tests the top rail of the six-month sideways channel which represents the highs for 2012 at 1465-1475. Does price now receive a spank down and travel back down to the lower end of the range? Six months of high drama, day in and day out, and the SPX has only moved thru a 125 point range. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
@ KS: Hy! You said:"The NYMO and CPC charts will be interesting this evening." Can you please provide us some info on this subject after the big move from the last 2 trading days? Thanks, V.
NYMO is 38.80 call it 40. NYMO chart shows that market tops are placed as price moves to 60 and above. This 40 level also places the markets on notice that a top may be in, but it shows that there is room for a day or three of some more upwards movement towards the 60 level. The September market top occurred with a NYMO at 62. So the thought is that a market top is near but not yet.
On the CPC put/call ratio, at 0.97, the CPC never reached 1.20+ to signal a very attractive tradeable market bottom. Markets simply jumped higher anyways on the political news. Thus, the CPC will eventually print over 1.20 to show there is fear and panic and provide a nice entry point for long trades, until then the long side would not be attractive. The CPC also shows that there is a continued complacency and total lack of fear that markets can go down. The CPC made it up to 1.08 which remains a complacent tone. The markets will make all traders experience fear and panic and that will be when the CPC moves above 1.2 which is a great time to bring longs on. Until then, the market mayhem and drama continues.
Thank you KS, I really apreciate your work here. Sometimes you make me think that behind this blog is more than one person due to the high output and high quality of information. You're just great! V. p.s. You should think to create an investment fund - this could be an idea ....
V, Keystone receives interesting offers time to time but that would mean he has to actually work. Plus give up hammock time, pie time and music time. That is far too much to ask since life is too short. (smile)
"Six months of high drama, day in and day out, and the SPX has only moved thru a 125 point range. ", very impressive, very true..makes me think everything over.
One thought just passed my mind :) We might repeat one more time or 2 times more the movement from september to november 2012 (with ceratin variations accepted - i.e spx500 up to 1485-1510) before a big waterfall down to 1100-1200 appears....
Maybe the big market players (funds, banks)are just dumping at ''acceptable'' price levels their stocks ...
@ KS:
ReplyDeleteHy!
You said:"The NYMO and CPC charts will be interesting this evening."
Can you please provide us some info on this subject after the big move from the last 2 trading days?
Thanks,
V.
NYMO is 38.80 call it 40. NYMO chart shows that market tops are placed as price moves to 60 and above. This 40 level also places the markets on notice that a top may be in, but it shows that there is room for a day or three of some more upwards movement towards the 60 level. The September market top occurred with a NYMO at 62. So the thought is that a market top is near but not yet.
ReplyDeleteOn the CPC put/call ratio, at 0.97, the CPC never reached 1.20+ to signal a very attractive tradeable market bottom. Markets simply jumped higher anyways on the political news. Thus, the CPC will eventually print over 1.20 to show there is fear and panic and provide a nice entry point for long trades, until then the long side would not be attractive. The CPC also shows that there is a continued complacency and total lack of fear that markets can go down. The CPC made it up to 1.08 which remains a complacent tone. The markets will make all traders experience fear and panic and that will be when the CPC moves above 1.2 which is a great time to bring longs on. Until then, the market mayhem and drama continues.
Thank you KS,
DeleteI really apreciate your work here. Sometimes you make me think that behind this blog is more than one person due to the high output and high quality of information.
You're just great!
V.
p.s. You should think to create an investment fund - this could be an idea ....
V, Keystone receives interesting offers time to time but that would mean he has to actually work. Plus give up hammock time, pie time and music time. That is far too much to ask since life is too short. (smile)
Delete"Six months of high drama, day in and day out, and the SPX has only moved thru a 125 point range. ", very impressive, very true..makes me think everything over.
ReplyDelete@ Serenay, KS:
DeleteOne thought just passed my mind :)
We might repeat one more time or 2 times more the movement from september to november 2012 (with ceratin variations accepted - i.e spx500 up to 1485-1510) before a big waterfall down to 1100-1200 appears....
Maybe the big market players (funds, banks)are just dumping at ''acceptable'' price levels their stocks ...
it might be a point of view....
V.