The GTX pops as commodities are encouraged by the MON positive earnings. GTX is at 4926 approaching the bull-bear line at 4950. For now, markets stumble sideways since GTX and UTIL remain in the bear camp and RTH, JJC and VIX remain the bull camp. The SPX moves thru the sideways 1458-1465 range today. The 8 MA is converging on the 34 MA from the underside on the SPX 30-minute chart as discussed in this morning's charts. The 8/34 MA cross is key this morning, as well as GTX 4950. The euro is 1.3085. The 10-year Treasury is at its lowest relative yield in a few days at 1.88%, which is equity bear favorable. AAPL is up over one percent, thus, tech is not leading the broad markets lower so the bears do not have much oomph. Consumer Credit is 3 PM and AA earnings are 4 PM.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 10:41 AM: The SPX fell thru the 1457 so the downside acceleration occurs as mentioned this morning, the SPX now with a 1452 handle. The 8 MA turned and is now sloping down again moving away from the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bearishness for the hours and days ahead. The bears are slapping each other on the backs and looking for the key to the liquor cabinet. GTX is at 4903 well off the highs and well below the 4950 the bulls need to drive equity markets higher. Ditto UTIL, now dropping to 457. These encouraging bear signs are meaningless unless either RTH, JJC or VIX move back to the bear camp, and all three still prefer the bull side. VIX is back above 14 again now at 14.21. The 10-year is now 1.87%. The euro keeps dropping, now at 1.3072. WTIC oil price is down and turned negative a short while ago which coincided with the markets weakening. Pay attention to oil. AAPL is negative. Tech continues to not lead the broad markets lower so this says the bears do not have oomph. The bears need to win over RTH, JJC or the VIX to prove they can take markets lower. Now that the 1460-1461 strong support gave way, the next strong support levels are 1444 and 1441. Other support levels are 1453 (now being tested), 1451, 1447 and 1446. The 1453 support held on the first try. The 1-hour and 2-hour SPX charts show weak and bleak indicators so the market weakness would be expected to linger into the afternoon.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 1:13 PM: Status quo. Markets churn sideways, a lingering weakness continues. The SPX and COMPQ are down the same percentage so tech is starting to gain momo to the downside. AAPL is flat and likely controls a lot of power right now since Apple's direction forward should lead the broad indexes. The TRIN is 1.74 representing orderly, non-panic, selling today, like yesterday. The five key parameters listed above will not change their allegiance so the markets move sideways. One of them will flinch. VIX is at 14. The 1453 support is holding. Markets may try to idle thru tomorrow's session to wait for the ECB decision.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 3:35 PM: The SPX now attacking 1457 resistance maintaining the sideways vibe all day long. VIX is under 14 providing bull fuel. AAPL is a few bucks positive. Tech could not gain enough momo to the downside today which indicated the bears did not have the oomph so price floated higher in the afternoon. The SPX 2-hour chart may want to see another low so that would take the SPX down to 1450-1453 for a test either into the close today or tomorrow. Markets are probably focused on the ECB's meeting in one day. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart which maintains a bearish signal moving forward and this must be respected. The 8 MA is starting to curl higher again so the 8/34 MA cross has to be monitored. TRIN is 1.66 indicating steady-eddy selling, the type of selling that can continue along indefinitely, no panic-type flush at all, simply orderly selling. Note the TICK printing over +1000 about fifteen minutes ago which identified a top with the test of the 1457 resistance, resulting in price failure down to 1454.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 3:57 PM: Here comes the SPX for another test of 1457 R. BA is down two bucks and since it is a Dow Component, multiply by 8 and that tells you how many Dow points are affected, 16. So BA alone accounts for 16 of the 55 negative Dow points today, almost one-third of the move lower in the Dow today.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 4:01 PM: SPX closes sitting on 1457 S/R. AA finishes the day stone cold flat at 9.10.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 4:04 PM: AA earnings meet the bottom line at six cents and beat on the top line at 5.90 billion versus 5.60 billion. AA bounces one percent AH's moving up towards that 9.3 top rail channel resistance highlighted in this morning's chart.
robed going in and robed going out UVXY 15.20 buy selling at 15.29 not even worth it... completely overshoots tick is up UVXY should be down it's not its so gamed. New Year's resolution I'm not touch the 3x darlings unless the are outside there bollinger bands. Bought 200 more shares of NUGT when it was outside the bands on the 30 minute charts will so far so good.
ReplyDeleteThe VIX products are the worse, the crazy action goes with the territory with them. Single ETF's are good to trade, also double ETF's, but the triple's are speculative and far more risky, then the VIX products are all the way out on the high-risk spectrum. Then, ETN products in general are high-risk. ETF's should be used and ETN's avoided, in general.
ReplyDeleteagreed under the bands only even then its a shot in the dark... Look at NUGT today Gold up .73% NUGT up .74% should be like triple that. Piece of garbage sold over before Gold did this morning to it's like options there are elevated premiums in the price structuring its a joke.
DeleteGold is a scam. Compare to other sectors. If it isn't a scam, than the miners are manipulated scams, too easy to fall for it's "fake" security in a new world market.
ReplyDeletemoved to exit NUGT at 9.70 I'm tired of this non-sense... no moved it to 9.65 instead this is bogus.
ReplyDeleteWhen I hear words like "scam" in relationship to a commodity, indices, or anything else, it's usually a pretty good indication that the investor hasn't done adequate homework. The days of being able to kick pack and put all your money into a single investment are over. If anything was ever nonsense, it's that people were doing this in the first place. Gold has become a crowded. It's not the easy panacea to inflation that it once was, but to say that it's a "scam" is to say that a whole bunch of people are in collusion to intentionally misrepresent the intrinsic value of God. It's not that we're too smart for that. It's that we live in a world that frankly isn't all that good at keeping secrets. If there was an "inside game", we'd find out about it. Gold remains a viable commodity. Otherwise, you wouldn't see a "We Buy Gold Sign" at every other intersection in most American towns.
ReplyDeleteMy frustration is with the 3x nightmares that don't tandemly trade to their underlying derivitives. TVIX own any? I did at 14 remember that drop. I'm fine with commoditys its producers vs, managed money vs swap dealers and I'm all for whacking things around but when you get UVXY drop 50 cents in a minute and no corresponding underlying derivate price drop that's gaming and it's HFT algos at there best running stops. The 3x ETF's trade like options with premiums and discounts to the underlying derivatives. In NUGT today traded to 9.40 when Gold was over 1650 - why was it trading at 9.90 when Gold was 1646. Doesn't make sense to me but that's okay I'm out I averaged down twice today and sold out at profit of both the NUGT and UVXY. I'll stay with the futures.
DeleteMore sideways stuff today perhaps trying to wait for the ECB Thursday morning. A rate cut would drop the euro and down euro = down equities. Traders may be hesitant in front of such a market moving event. SPX headed back up to test 1457 R.
ReplyDeleteWe buy used cars as well, we have close outs on top quality furniture. Enough with the Orwellian Semantics shane. Excuse the word "scam" as it maybe too close to "Shane". Let's use the word "Spam" then, Gold si somewhat, i say somewhat of a "Spam". Looks like you can eat it? They sell it in stores but is it food for nutrition? I think you know what I am talking about. To be clear I owned NGD ABX AUY miners extensively awhile ago. NGD is a manipulated Oilphant in the room., ect. "Spam" investments should be replaced with wholesome ones. No? KS, like Spam pie? Of course not, only berries. See!
ReplyDeleteLimit down in ES a few days - so your long with a profit of 20 handles and then you get stopped out with a 10 handle loss on your ride home in less than 5 minutes and at 6pm when it opens its 20 handles higher. I don't trade with stops for that reason but you talk to all the people that happened to regular folk and see how they feel about that. That's an HFT raid it happens all the time can't wait to see the orderly trading that is about to unfold in AA tonight. Call it what you like but I'm with you on the maniputlated verbage ANON.
DeleteYep, spam pie does not sound appetizing, perhaps it would put a shine on shoes, however. There is room for all asset classes, and everyone should own all classes, keep you fingers in a lot of 'pies', stocks, bonds, CD's, savings, cash, gold, real estate, art, collectibles, etc... All of it is important. Real estate is setting up to be probably the best investment over the next couple years so anyone wanting to buy a house, keep saving money and then contemplate that investment over the next couple years. So there is a place for everything. In deflation, which Keystone continues to look for, cash is king, so it is probably prudent to withdraw a few bucks each month and stash it in a fireproof box somewhere. If there is a bank holiday or some other problem over the next couple years, you will be happy you have cash stashed. Everyone else will be standing in line all day to withdraw a hundred and fifty bucks per day if that scenario occurs.
ReplyDeleteKS, is wise in the eyes and the buys.
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