Keystone's 150-Day MA Slope Indicator

Keystone's 150-day MA slope indicator must make a decision over the coming days. When the 150-day moving average is sloping upwards, the wine is flowing like water, and the bulls are throwing confetti since the markets are in an extended upward move over the weeks and months time periods.  When the 150-day MA slopes downwards, the bears are growling strongly and the markets are in a short and intermediate-term sell mode.

The initial crack in the broad equity markets was first identified on 10/26/12, about six weeks ago, when the slope went negative reversing the upward trend that began in January. There was a fake-out stutter step move in June but the bulls recovered after one day and forced the rally to continue into September and October. In general, the flat nature of the 150-day MA is a negative sign for markets. The bulls are a stubborn bunch, however, and they quickly reversed the bearish signal a few days later and the information below shows the drama over the last few weeks, with the bulls and bears in an all-out struggle for survival. One side will win and the other lose in the coming days. Here is the action in the 150-day MA as copied over from the Cyclical Turn Signal page;


11/21/12 = Bullish; Cyclical Bull Market; the slope recovered; 1391 SPX 1384
11/20/12 = Bearish; Cyclical Bear Market; 150 day MA is sloping down; 1384 SPX 1384
11/19/12 = Bullish; Cyclical Bull Market; the slope recovered; 1387 SPX 1384
11/14/12 = Bearish; Cyclical Bear Market; 150 day MA is sloping down; 1384 SPX 1385
11/13/12 = Bullish; Cyclical Bull Market; the slope recovered; 1375 SPX 1385
11/7/12 = Bearish; Cyclical Bear Market; 150 day MA is sloping down; 1395 SPX 1385
11/2/12 = Bullish; Cyclical Bull Market; the slope recovered; 1414 SPX 1385
11/1/12 = Bearish; Cyclical Bear Market; 150 day MA is sloping down; 1420 SPX 1385
10/31/12 = Bullish; Cyclical Bull Market; a stutter step occured saving the bulls BUT the slope should turn negative again in short order; 1419 SPX 1385
10/26/12 = Bearish; Cyclical Bear Market; major trend change from January since June was only a one-day fake-out; 150 day MA is now sloping down; 1412 SPX 1385
6/5/11 = Bullish; Cyclical Bull Market; a stutter step occured saving the bulls; the slope is moving up again so the bulls seized back control; 1319 SPX 1288
6/4/12 = Bearish; Cyclical Bear Market; major trend change from January; 150 day MA is now sloping down; turns out to be a false signal; 1319 SPX 1278
1/10/12 = Bullish; Cyclical Bull Market; major trend change from August; 150-day MA is now sloping up; 1234 SPX 1292


To keep track yourself, simply follow the 150-day MA for the SPX moving forward.  YHOO Finance is very useful. Use their interactive SPX chart and plug in the 150-day MA under the Technical Indicators tab and you can easily see the 150-day MA prints for all the recent days. This way, you can determine the subtle changes in the number to determine if the bulls will win, or if the bears will win.  This is important since it sets the trend for markets for weeks and months ahead. The last few days show the following prints for the 150-day MA; 1384.46, 1384.68, 1384.86, 1385.08, 1385.33, 1385.50, 1385.61, and 1385.65, the current print. Note how the 150-day MA slowly and incrementally moves higher each day, this is bullish. The number to watch today is if the 150-day MA slope continues higher, with a print of 1385.66 or higher, or, if today's number will print lower, 1385.64 or lower. And similarly, follow this each day forward until the trend is established clearly showing the bulls moving higher again to continue with rally action, or, the slope turning negative which signals that the bears will rule moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.