SPX Support, Resistance (S/R) and Moving Averages for Trading the Week of 11/5/12

SPX support, resistance, moving averages and other levels of import are provided below. Last week was dramatic with the SPX leaping higher on Thursday, then collapsing on Friday. Note how price came up for the Friday intraday high at a confluence of the 20 and 50-day MA's, all converging at 1434-1435, which resulted in price failure.  The move serves a as a back kiss for both the 20 and 50-day MA's, and, since price failed after the kiss, a bearish signal results moving forward. Further, the 20-day MA is about to stab down thru the 50 MA which is a bearish signal.

Keystone's 200 EMA signal on the 60-minute chart was tested on Friday resulting in price collapse.  This is a key indicator for bullishness versus bearishness for the days and couple weeks or so moving forward so the bears remain in control. The 1433 level is very strong resistance, thus, a strong ceiling is now in place for price at 1431-1435.  Price will need a jack hammer to punch up thru this gauntlet moving forward.

The SPX closed near the lows and strong support at 1413.  Even though price pierced the 1413 support on Friday the bears did not have the energy to close underneath this strong support and the bulls ran out the clock to end the session. The 20-week MA at 1407 is very important support over the last two weeks so losing that level piles on more market bearishness. The 1403-1406 uber strong support held over the last couple weeks with price testing 1403 intraday and bouncing. This is the Draghi put level where the ECB's OMT bond-buying announcement occurred placing a floor in the markets. A loss of 1403 would indicate that traders have lost all confidence in a Spain bailout request occurring anytime soon.

For Monday, starting at 1414, the bulls would need a 20-handle move, to punch thru the 1431-1435 resistance gauntlet to get their mojo back, a very formidable task. Instead, the bulls will simply try to prevent any additional downside. The bears have the easy road, only needing a one point drop to trigger a downside acceleration which would test the important 20-week MA at 1407 in short order.  Watch the Sunday overnight futures to see if the S&P's are down a point or more, if so, the bears are going to come to play for Monday's open. If the futures are positive, the bulls will be putting up a strong fight and the downward market slide may be more bluster than strength. A move thru 1414-1433 is sideways action. If 1403 fails, bad things will happen to the markets.

·         1476

·         1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)

·         1472

·         1468

·         1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)

·         1465

·         1461

·         1460

·         1457

·         1453

·         1451

·         1447

·         1446

·         1444

·         1441

·         1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)

·         1438

·         1435

·         1434.74 (20-day MA)

·         1434.48 (50-day MA)

·         1434.27 Friday HOD

·         1433

·         1431.71 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)

·         1431

·         1429

·         1426 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63)

·         1424

·         1422.51 (10-day MA)

·         1422

·         1419

·         1416

·         1414.20 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

·         1413

·         1412.91 Friday LOD

·         1409

·         1407.17 (20-week MA)

·         1406 (5/29/08 HOD)

·         1404

·         1403

·         1399.82 (100-day MA)

·         1399

·         1397

·         1394

·         1391

·         1389.75 (10-month MA)

·         1389

·         1385

·         1384.89 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

·         1378.93 (200-day MA)

·         1378

·         1375

·         1372.29 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

·         1371(5/2/11 Intraday HOD for 2011: 1370.58)

·         1370

·         1369

·         1366

·         1364 (4/29/11 Closing High for 2011: 1363.61)

·         1363

·         1362

·         1358.80 (50-week MA)

·         1358

·         1357

·         1355