RTH Retail Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

We have been watching retail for the last couple weeks. The same pattern is in place ready to smack retail south with a vengeance. Waiting for retail to roll over this year is like waiting for Godot; the great American consumer can never be underestimated.  But, as evidence grows that the savings rate is increasing, and the gasoline price moves higher, the negative vibe for retail should hit hard now. The back-to-school sales are a great predictor of the upcoming holiday sales period so we are at an inflection point where the end should begin.  This weekly chart is a wicked nasty set up and the daily chart is negatively diverged as well. Thus, a smack down would likely occur in concert with weak earnings from the retailers this week, listen carefully to the releases, weak Retail Sales number early next week, and evidence that the back-to-school sales are a flop.  The charts say short retail. And, very importantly, do not chase WMT here as pundits are telling you to do so; if you chase WMT long, bring a bag because you are the bag-holdin' sucka. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.