Strike up the caliope since the circus music enhances the jobs report carnival atmosphere. The consensus was 100K jobs and 8.3% unemployment rate. The numbers are just released and show an 80K increase to jobs, under the expected estimate, an 8.2% unchanged rate, and hours worked are up a smidge (a tiny positive). Construction jobs are flat showing an anemic economy. All in all a disappointing report making it four sad reports in a row since the Good Friday debacle kicked off the negativity. Four jobs reports remain before the presidential election. Futures markets drop on the news, the S&P's are down seven to eight points.
Talking technicals today, CRB, JJC, SOX, VIX and NYA are determining market direction. Commodities and copper are creating market negativity, watch CRB 293 and JJC 44.35. Semiconductors, volatility and the NYA Index are creating market positivity, watch SOX 383.50, VIX 18.75 and NYA 7720. Any changes to these parameters will corresponding push the broad indexes in that respective direction. For the SPX starting at 1368, the bulls need to touch the 1374 handle today to accelerate the market upside. This does not appear on tap after the jobs report. The bears need to push under 1363 to accelerate the market downside. The 1363-1364 level is an important support level; the bears will be whistlin' a happy tune if it gives way, the bulls will be relieved if it holds. A move thru 1365-1373 is sideways action today.
I don't anticipate that a move below 1363 is going to be very difficult unfortunately I'm in a modeto watch today as I would have preferred a higher entry short. Some days you know your limitations and as I write this I can see we hit 1350 on the E-Mini my next stop is 1346 the 1st Fibonacci line the verticality of pricing is just incredible. I'm anxious to finalize my accumulation and distribution algorithm and let it loose in this market as it humanly impossible to trade day and night and it taxing in every regard.
ReplyDeleteHope you are successful. Unfortunately, putting in the constant work and "stare" is the only way to trade this market. When at the circus you can't take your eyes off the three ring circus for one second, two eyes aren't enough. No machine can take the place of the active and alert trader.
ReplyDeletestare I love it... My mind hurts I just said "I can't even think" out loud. I'm content red = green in this camp...
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