Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 7/2/12

Today is the first trading day of July and of the new quarter, Q3. Markets tend to be buoyant in front of the full moon, which is tomorrow, and also in front of the holiday's, and money tends to be put to use to start the new quarter, so the news continues to move in the bulls favor. The markets should pivot today at 10 AM upon release of the ISM Manufacturing Index. The energy markets will be affected so watch oil, gas and XLE. The real fireworks will occur with the ECB Thursday morning before the U.S. open, and of course the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday. Low volumes are expected, even lower than the recent vapor volume action.

The thrust in semiconductors, copper and commodities was a huge game-changer on Friday. Therefore, watch these three sectors today using SOX 383.15, JJC 44.35 and CRB 282.80 as proxies. If these three remain above the levels shown, the bulls will be celebrating moving forward. Market bears will begin to wrestle back control if these three sectors can be reversed this week.  For the SPX today, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures to continue the upside and currently this is on tap in the futures markets, albeit by a smidge. To keep it simple, watch SOX 383.15, JJC 44.35 and CRB 282.80, and stay alert for a market pivot at 10 AM EST.