Taking an early look at the parameters for today; JJC drops under 44.35, bearish, SOX is at 387 three points above 384 maintaining its residence in the bull camp, and NYA is 7846 about 20 points above the critical 7720-7725 level, bullish. Thus, with one of the three lower, the markets are experiencing negativity but not testing the critical 1364 level for today as yet. Utes are lower, bear farvorable. So the bears are finally pushing back after rolling over last Friday. SPX is sitting at that critical 1370 level as described in this morning's chart. 1370.58 was the intraday high for 2011.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 10:06 AM: ISM Non-Manufacturing data weakens markets further. JJC and SOX have both fallen thru Keystone's levels and note how the markets ratcheted downwards. NYA remains in the bull camp.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 11:03 AM: SPX ruptured 1364 but could not hold under. JJC and SOX failed below the numbers of interest creating negativity but have now recovered creating the buoyancy. Keep watching CRB 297, JJC 44.35, SOX 483.50, NYA 7725 and VIX 18.75. All are creating market bullishness except for the CRB.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 11:37 AM: Coals are feeling the love today. Keystone exited the ANR long coal trade with a slight profit, riding ANR down but she recovered, will look to use the cash elsewhere.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 11:55 AM: SPX really likes that 2011 intraday high number at 1370.58 so use it as a bull-bear guide, above and bulls are happy, below and bears are happy. If 1370.58 fails the 1363.61 closing high for 2011 will become the target, which held as support after the open today. Tech is not leading the broad markets lower today so this helps mute the market downside move. Gold is selling off about 15 bucks, about one percent.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 3:01 PM: Shippers are on fire today. Keystone took profits on EXM, the penny stock long play.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 3:35 PM: Keystone bot CEP opening up a new long position. Also bot TECS (inverse technology 3x ETF that used to be TYP) opening a new long position. Both trades are high-risk and very dangerous.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 3:43 PM: Keystone bot SPXS which used to be the BGZ 3x bear ETF, another very dangerous speculative play. Keystone also wants to short RTH but the broker cannot provide any shares.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 3:48 PM: Traders are placing their bets ahead of the jobs circus tomorrow. SPX is under the 1370.58 magnet number.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 3:53 PM: Note that Keystone's SPX 30-minute chart with 8 MA and 34 MA cross indicator shows the 8 MA flattening while the 34 MA continues up, both moving averages converging on each other. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA which signals the market bullishness since 6/29/12 but watch this closely for a potential cross that would place the bears back in the driver's seat. UTIL is red today continuing to receive the negative divergence spank down.
Note Added 7/5/12 at 4:10 PM: As laid out before the open today, the SPX needed to punch down thru 1364 for the bears to accelerate the downside. The 1364 was punctured at 10 AM EST but it could not hold more than a few minutes so the bulls came in to move the markets higher. The 1374 level, today's opening print, then held as resistance above between 2 PM and 2:30 PM. The entire day's action is bisected by the 1370.58 magic number so pay attention to this level moving forward. Light volume action continues as traders opt to stay at the beach thru the coming weekend. JJC closed under 44.35 preferring the bear camp along with the CRB. SOX and the NYA, as described this morning, prefer the bull camp overnight tonight. Warm up the caliope, queue the monkey grinder and bearded lady, and make way for the sideshow, since the jobs circus rolls back into town tomorrow. The Monthly Jobs Report numbers will hit at 8:30 AM EST.
Bots had no respect today for the 2MIN trend lines and in fact blew through the 30MIN up trend line and then someone turn the buy switch on it was almost a buy the dip lose the ship...
ReplyDeleteKS 2 days outside the low band RIMM is heading toward the EMA 4 then perhaps the EMA 9 at 8.36 I think I may ring the bell up or at least only leave some profits working... I just heard CNBC touting sell into strength it time to long up strong. They didn't even mention Facebook at 26 when I bought it they bring attention to it at 31 when it was the exact perfect time to take profits...
I'm going to go look at NT (for giggles) EUR got raped today.
Yep, the talking heads are typically great contrarian indicators. SPX keeps fighting with last years intraday high at 1370.58. CEP is set up nicely as a potential long play.
ReplyDeleteKS, have you seen the nymo today? Its over 100. doesn't that typically mean that the market is way overbought?? thanks. dale
ReplyDeleteDale, yep, you can see that the peaks in NYMo correspond ot the late April top, late May top, mid June top, and now. NYMO also negatively diverged which means it should receive a spank down.
ReplyDeleteHey guys! I noticed the same for the NYMO, and that it's level on Tuesday (100.8) is the heighest ever since the 2009 low. Rediculous overbought in other words. Before any uptrend can continue, this over bought needs to ease (a lot).
ReplyDeleteTo answer previous questions: I am still holding SDS, and unless 1375 breaks I don't c 1400s as the potential outcome of this rally (also because everybody says so, and the market never does what everybody says... Rather the opposite).
Non farm payroll tomorrow holds the key...
I am long still I was about to buy a little more CEP to cost average lower again but its flaring now on the low band it needs some love. That company needs to be able to get some hedges in on Natty above 3.50 because they are simply being bleed to death by their creditors...Lets see if the next pop has leg and can break outside of the box... Otherwise we about to be a penny stock soon.
ReplyDeleteI have been watching NYMO for days and I thought this morning it was it... but the scooped up the broken 30MIN up trendline and its was volatile ever since a big move tomorrow I think
ReplyDeleteYep MCAP, CEP closed at 1.50 exactly on top of the lower BB at 1.5. Very attractive positive divergence on the daily chart. The momo to the downside is unreal, traders really leaned on this bugger. With that momo, it should receive an up-down-up stutter step move to establish a base, it appears chart-wise that it is probably okay here on out but time will tell. One potential path is a positive divergence pop now, perhaps up to center BB (which is also the 20-day MA) at 1.64, then back down again to 1.48-1.52 for a retest, then perhaps this is a long term base moving forward.
ReplyDeletePenny stocks really refer to any stock priced under five dollars since the funds and institutions typically cannot hold stocks under $5 as per their prosepectus and rules. Thus, Keystone is with you on CEP but if the pop occurs, the trade will likely be exited, and then perhaps reloaded when the double bottom occurs. It all sounds good now until it goes caphooey as the days ahead tick by.
I was going sell at 1.70 on that pop and perhaps i should have but im by no means stuck here I dable with these buggers sometimes old habits die hard but thats how you find the ARNA's i knew natty was going up so I figured this might get an exgarated pop but no worries... Cant wait to see the verticality of the price action in the SP tommorow.
ReplyDeleteKS, What do you think of a pop on NOK?
ReplyDeleteFor NOK, it is on the Positions and Pick list. Keystone is continuing to get caught up after the mid-week holiday. Using Keystone's 80/20 rule, a breach of 2.2 will typically lead to 1.8. Not always, but usually. Thus, a potential entry at 1.7-2.0 does look like a winner with the positive divergence, but being stingy on the important entry level, probably best to wait and see 1.70-1.85, if it starts moving up wihtout going any lower, so be it, there is a lot of fish in the ocean.
ReplyDeleteMakes a lot of sense and agree, thanks.
ReplyDelete