Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time. The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.
Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:
· Keystone’s Comments on the Upcoming Week: The European debt crisis drama took a positive turn last week on the talk of stimulus from the Fed and ECB central bankers. Since ponies were promised, and the equity markets responded violently to the upside, the ponies must be delivered this week on Wednesday at 2:15 PM EST and Thursday morning about 7 AM EST. Geithner is flying over to meet with European officials tomrrow. Obviously, something changed this week with the European drama since the new urgency and action by the CB’s occurred and smacks of desperation. Either Greece has completely blown up fiscal-wise, or one or more of the Spanish regions are in failure, or other negative scenario has occurred. Perhaps this week the answer is provided. Spanish and Italian bond yields have pulled back on the happy easing talk. Bank runs and European riot worries now take a back seat to the happy stimulus talk. The European news flow directly dictates global market direction. Congress is in session for a few more days which is a market negative. Watch for further China easing measures such as lowering triple R’s which will bounce equity markets. Earnings season remains in full swing. Many companies warned so the bar is low enough to provide easier beats. About three-quarters of the companies are in line or beating with EPS, which is typical, but over one-half of the companies are reporting top line revenue numbers that are missing expectations clearly showing that the overall economy remains sick underneath the surface. Sectors to watch are steel, shipping, oil refiners, energy, water and utilities. A major Bradley turn date occurred on Saturday so a Bradley turn window is open this week for a major market turn to occur. The acceleration rally move may have already identified the turn since the window runs from 7/16/12 thru 8/3/12. Hang on to your hat, Wednesday thru Friday this week will be a circus.
· Monday, 7/30/12: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM. Earnings: APC, CALM, CRUS-provides insight into AAPL, DBD, DNDN, EMN-chemicals and plastics are the building blocks of all recoveries, FISV, FLS, GLRE, GMO, GNOM, GRO, HCA, HLF, HTZ, INVE, IDTI, KWR, LMNX, MSO, MAS-important for housing sector, MPWR, NABI, NEU, NU, NWPX, OSIR, STX, SPPI, STEM, VRTX, VVUS, WTR, YRCW.
· Tuesday, 7/31/12: EOM-monthly charts receive new prints today. FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Employment Cost Index and Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM. S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index 9 AM. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM. Consumer Confidence 10 AM-potential market pivot point. Farm Prices 3 PM. Earnings: ALL, ADM, BMC, COH-retail, DRIV, EIX, EA, FMC, GERN, HRS, HW, HEP, KLIC, PFE, PZZA, FIRE, TARO, X, VLO, YNDX.
· Wednesday, 8/1/12: Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Motor Vehicle Sales-is the auto industry stumbling? Challenger Job Report 7:30 AM. ADP Jobs Report 8:15 AM. PMI Mfg index and Treasury Refunding Announcement 9 AM. Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index 10 AM-potential market pivot point. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM-expect a market pivot point. Full Moon (markets are typically buoyant moving into the full moon). Earnings: AMT, ADP, AGN, AVP, BALT, ED, DVN, ERII, EXC, FCN, GNK, GGP, HOG, HUN, H, ICE, IPI, MET, MUR, OC, PAR, PRU, SIGA, RGR-gun sales will be in the news, SNCR, THOR, TSO, SAM, HIG, TWX, RIG, VG, WLT, WTW, WMB, YELP.
· Thursday, 8/2/12: BOE Rate Decision. ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference 7 to 8 AM EST. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM. Earnings: ALTI, AIG, AMSC, AWK, APA, AVEO, BEAM, BDX, BBG, BCRX,CAH, CBS, CKP, DUK, FLR-gauge of engineering activity, GM-the national embarrassment, GTLS, K, LNKD, MWE, MELI, MTZ, MCP, MWW, NFG, NILE, OMX, PRX, PH, PWR, RDC, SD, SRE, SWN, SE, SUN, SFY, TDC, TWC, TIE, UPL, WNR, XEC, XEL, ZIP.
· Friday, 8/3//12: Monster Employment Index. Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM--this report is one of four remaining before the presidential election in November; October is the most important. ISM Non-Mfg Index 10 AM. Earnings: BID, BPL, DRC, EOG, PG, SOL, TNH.
· Wednesday, 8/8/12: 10-Year Note Auction 1 PM.
· Thursday, 8/9/12: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. 30-Year Bond Auction.
· Tuesday, 8/14/12: PPI and Retail Sales 8:30 AM.
· Wednesday, 8/15/12: Spanish stress tests due from independent auditor. CPI 8:30 AM. Industrial Production 9:15 AM.
· Thursday, 8/16/12: Jobless Claims and Housing Starts 8:30 AM. Philly Fed 10 AM.
· Friday, 8/17/12: Consumer Sentiment 10 AM.
· Wednesday, 8/22/12: Existing Home Sales 10 AM. FOMC Minutes 2 PM.
· Thursday, 8/23/12: Jobless Claims and New Home Sales 10 AM.
· Friday, 8/24/12: Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM.
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