Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 7/16/12

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Keystone’s Comments on the Upcoming Week:  The European debt crisis drama continues. The Spanish 10-year yield has moved back below 7% providing some short term calm.  Bank runs remain a major concern for Greece, Spain and Italy. Continue watching the European spreads closely; Spain-Germany, Italy-Germany, and France-Germany especially to directly gauge the contagion of the European debt crisis (France representing the socialistic direction and Germany representing the austerity and fiscally prudent direction). If the spreads increase, the turmoil in Europe is getting worse. The European news flow dictates global market direction. Congress is in session, for the most part, thru 8/3/12, so this is a market negative. Watch for further China easing measures such as lowering triple R’s which will bounce equity markets. Traders are anticipating a stimulus package Sunday evening so markets may start the week disappointed if China does not announce stimulus news overnight tonight. Earnings season is off and stumbling. Many companies warned so the bar is low enough to provide easier beats.  Blue chips, financials, brokers, truckers, railroads, tech and industrial earnings are on tap this week providing a healthy gauge of the global economy. Retail Sales on Monday, Housing Starts on Wednesday, Chairman Bernanke’s talks on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Beige Book on Wednesday are the key events for the week greatly impacting the broad indexes.

·         Monday, 7/16/12: Empire State Mfg Index and Retail Sales 8:30 AM. Business Inventories 10 AM-expect a market pivot point. OpEx Monday's tend to be bullish for markets. Earnings: BRO, CTAS, C, GCI, GRO, HBNC, JBHT, LNCR, PKG, YRCW.  Truckers, uniforms and packaging are all key economic indicators.

·         Tuesday, 7/17/12: Consumer Price Index (CPI) 8:30 AM.  TIC data 9 AM-provides a gauge of foreign investment. Industrial Production 9:15 AM. Housing Market Index 10 AM.  Chairman Bernanke speaks 10 AM.  Watch for a market pivot point at 10 AM. Markets tend to exhibit a bullish move from Tuesday into Wednesday during OpEx week. Markets tend to favor the sell side moving towards a new moon. Earnings: AMTD, ALB, ALNC, CSX, FRX, GS, HBI, INTC, IBKR, JNJ, KO, KSU, MTB, MAT, MMR, MOS, EDU, SABA, URI, WYNN, YHOO. Railroads are key today.

·         Wednesday, 7/18/12: Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Housing Starts 8:30 AM. Chairman Bernanke speaks 10 AM.  Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. Beige Book 2 PM-expect a market pivot point. Earnings: ABT, AXP, APH, BAC, BK, CHKP, CLB, CTDC, DOV, EBAY, GHL, HON, IBM-a major bellwether, KMP, NE, PNC, SLM, SWKS, STJ, SWK, STLY, SYK, SCHW, USB, UNB, GWW, XLNX, YUM-key indicator for China.

·         Thursday, 7/19/12: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed and Leading Indicators 10 AM-expect a market pivot point. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. 10-Year TIPS Auction 1 PM.  Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  New Moon occurs this evening. Earnings: AMD, BMI, BAX, BBT, COF, CPHD, CMG, CBST, CY, DHR, DO, DOLE, ETFC, FCS, FITB, FCX, GDI, GOOG, HBAN, ISRG, KEY, KNL, LH, MSFT, MS, NCR, NUE, ORB, OSTK, PM, PPG, DGX, SWY, SNDK, SHW, LUV, SWFT, TXT, TRV, TZOO, UNP, UNH, VZ, VFC, WERN.

·         Friday, 7/20/12:  Eurozone officials meet to finalize the Spanish bank rescue. OpEx Friday. Markets tend to move on Monday in the opposite direction than the OpEx Friday action. Earnings: AEP, BHI, GE-a major bellwether, IR, MAN, SLB, STI, XRX.

·         Saturday, 7/21/12: Bradley major turn date is 7/28/12 so a window opens between 7/23/12 and 8/3/12 for a major market turn to occur.

·         Thursday, 7/26/12: FB earnings.

·         Friday, 7/27/12: GDP 8:30 AM.  Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM-market pivot point.

·         Saturday, 7/28/12: Bradley major turn date.

·         Tuesday, 7/31/12: EOM. FOMC Meeting Begins.

·         Wednesday, 8/1/12: ISM Mfg Index 10 AM-market pivot point and watch energy markets. FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM. Full Moon.

·         Friday, 8/3/12:  Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM-this report is one of four remaining before the presidential election in November.