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Saturday, June 30, 2012

SPX S/R Week of 7/2/12

SPX support, resistance, moving averages and other levels of interest are provided for the holiday-shortened trading week ahead.  The bullish move on Friday is leaving traders shell-shocked. The bulk of the move was short-sellers caught on the wrong side that quickly had to unload positions providing bull fuel all day long.  Major sectors such as financials, retail, volatility, semiconductors, copper and commodities all jumped higher.

In the final minutes of trading Friday, the SPX punched up thru the strong 1358 resistance to close at the high at 1362, above the 100-day and 20-week MA's. It is all coming up roses for the bulls. 1364, 1366 and 1370 are the next resistance levels above. 1360, 1358, 1356 and 1351 provide support below. The 50-day MA at 1340 may play a key role this week and moving forward.

For Monday, starting at 1362, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures overnight Sunday and the markets will accelerate higher for another bull leg upwards, likely to the 1370 and 1372 area. Bears will simply try to stop the upside momo by preventing the futures from printing green. A move thru 1331-1361 is sideways action. Note that the closing high print for 2011 is only one point higher at 1363.61; a print above here would be a significant development.

·        1408
·        1406 (5/29/08 HOD)
·        1404
·        1403
·        1402
·        1399
·        1398
·        1394
·        1391
·        1389
·        1388
·        1385
·        1378
·        1375
·        1372
·        1371(5/2/11 Intraday HOD for 2011: 1370.58)
·        1370
·        1369
·        1366
·        1364 (4/29/11 Closing High for 2011: 1363.61)
·        Friday HOD 1362.17
·        Friday Close 1362.16
·        20-week MA 1360.34
·        100-day MA 1359.57
·        1358
·        1356
·        1351
·        1347
·        1344
·        1343
·        1341
·        50-day MA 1340.21
·        1338
·        10-day MA 1337.57
·        1337
·        1336
·        1333
·        1332
·        1331
·        150-day MA 1330.38 (150-Day Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
·        Friday LOD 1330.12
·        1329
·        1326
·        20-day MA 1325.76
·        1324
·        1321
·        1319
·        1318
·        1316
·        1315
·        1314
·        1312
·        1310
·        1308
·        1307
·        1305
·        10-month MA 1304.62
·        1300
·        1298
·        1296
·        200-day MA 1299.58
·        12-month MA 1296.45 (a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
·        1295
·        1293 (10/27/11 Intraday High 1292.66)
·        1292
·        1289
·        1287
·        1286
·        50-week MA 1285.15
·        1285
·        1281
·        1278
·        1277
·        1275

3 comments:

  1. Arnie, you mentioned that 1390 is in the cards. Now is this run based on QE type activity or will QE push this market to 1500+?

    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  2. The whole concept of Chairman Bernanke's QE measures is to create a wealth effect (higher stock market) where people then go out to spend money, which in turn kicks in hiring by companies and jump starts the economy. Good or bad, that is the idea behind quantitative easing. Thus, if the markets are remaining buoyancy, and in light of the huge up day on Friday, Bernanke is walking around with his chest puffed out happy that he can breathe a sigh of relief for a few days. Copper and commodities bounced on Friday which would also reduce the need for QE3, for now. As seen by the drastic Friday move, that type of move can easily happen in reverse as well. For clues on coming QE, watch copper and commodities closely (use the JJC and CRB as proxies).

    ReplyDelete
  3. KS, thanks for your insights on qe!

    Steve

    ReplyDelete

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