Today is EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1. The monthly charts receive final prints today. A huge spike skyward in the euro early this morning is catapulting global markets higher. The Euro Summit produces positive results over recapitalization of the Spanish and Italian banks as well as Merkel showing she can bend and compromise, albeit slightly. The U.S futures show the S&P's up about 15 currently, they were up higher a short time ago, and the Dow Industrials up 112 points. The recent pattern shows that happy Euro news announcements result in market bounces, but after a day or two the joy fades away. The TICK printed +1500 yesterday afternoon, an obscenely high TICK number that is rarely seen, testimony to the uber bullish euphoria once trader's learned that Merkel softened her stance.
Spain 10-year yield fell back under 7% relieving stress. Italy 10-year yield is back under 6%. The Spain indexes were up well over 3% a short while ago but have pared back those gains. Keystone's algorithm, Keybot the Quant, will likely flip to the long side after the opening bell today if the current market positivity stays in place. Watch the same four key parameters as yesterday; RTH 41.29, XLF 14.35, VIX 18.90 and NYA 7688. RTH turned bullish in the final minutes of trading yesterday. The other three are bearish to start today so their behavior in the opening minutes is very important. The extent of how many of the remaining three turn bullish will dictate the strength of the bullish move projected for the broad indexes. If all four of these parameters are bullish after the open, the bulls will be moving higher and not looking back.
The SPX only needed to touch the 1332 handle today to accelerate the upside and the futures show that this level should immediately give way at the open. Personal Income and Outlays are released 8:30 AM. Chicago PMI is at 9:45 AM, a vital gauge for employment. Consumer Sentiment is 9:55 AM which should result in a market pivot point. KBH earnings will provide more insight into the housing sector. In a nutshell, if the XLF overtakes 14.35, the VIX drops under 18.90 and the NYA moves above 7688, the market bulls will be running strong and Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the long side. Watch Keystone's SPX:VIX Ratio Indicator now a touch under 68; the 68 level should give way to the upside which would verify a large up day for markets on tap, and continued bullishness ahead, as long as the ratio stays above 68. An active morning is anticipated.
Note Added 6/29/12 at 8:15 AM: S&P's are up 20 handles now. RTH and XLF are going to jump higher. KBH earnings even surprise better than expected. It's all coming up roses for the bulls today. SRS continues to be an attractive long, with a developing inverted H&S, which is short real estate, and the positive housing news this week may provide a nice entry. Keystone is not in it currently. Note that the large opening on tap shows the S&P's up 1.58% with the Nasdaq up 1.61%, tech only leading the broad market by a hair to the upside and a few minutes ago tech was actually lagging. Without strong and robust tech leadership today, the market move after the opening pop may be muted.
How do you follow the SPX:VIX real time?
ReplyDeleteFreddie, you can watch it on www.stockcharts.com, type in "$SPX:$VIX" into the ticker box and you are good to go. If you have a subscription you can watch the minute chart but for this indicator that is not necessary, the daily chart updates in real-time so that will do you good.
ReplyDeleteAn interesting day is on tap, since the SPX:VIX ratio should catapult thru 68 probably thru 70 and higher a the open, but, as seen yesterday, by the end of the day will it drift back under? The markets remain in a bull-bear struggle, that is why the calls keep flipping back and forth, markets are riding an inflection point adn do not know which way to turn. Today we see if this rally will develop legs, or not. If the ratio closes over 68 and the RTH, XLF, VIX and NYA are all bullish, by the metrics shown above, the bulls will be continuing the market move higher moving forward into the holiday-shortened week next week.
Thanks. By the way, I like the adds for Hayek, Stossel, and Schilling, et al. Couldn't find room for Von Mises? :)
ReplyDeleteparabolic :(
ReplyDeletehttp://scharts.co/Qzde12
ReplyDeleteI pretty sure I'm going buy 100,000 thousand shares of RIMM today...
ReplyDeleteSomeone recently sold 50,000 Jan'13 8-strike puts to finance 50,000 Jan'13 14-strike calls, for $1.02 net debit. This is has take over finger prints all over it. That's 5 million share purchase I like that kind of conviction. And someone said yesterday you gamble I don't think so they know not what they say... LOL
Girls this is trading at 1.00 as of yesterday when it opens it will be open RIMM has "strategic options" before its public knowledge they have hired bankers.
ReplyDeleteUnderlying
RIMM
Security Type
Vertical Spread
Contract
MAR 15 '13 + 11 - 18 Call
Currency
USD
Exchange
SMART
Multiplier
100.0
Price Increment
0.01
Region Name
America
To buy 1 Vertical Spread means:
1: Buy 1 RIMM OPT MAR 15 '13 11 Call (100) 2: Sell 1 RIMM OPT MAR 15 '13 18 Call (100)
To sell 1 Vertical Spread means:
1: Sell 1 RIMM OPT MAR 15 '13 11 Call (100) 2: Buy 1 RIMM OPT MAR 15 '13 18 Call (100)
Can someone tell me who wants to take over RIMM?
ReplyDeleteCNBC just said that 16 out of 19 times when market gaps up 1.5% or more to
ReplyDeletethen closes higher.
boom secondary melt up when this passes...
This was also mentioned on CNBC when it hit the wires …
German Opposition Says ESM Vote May Be Delayed
8:29 AM ET on Friday, June 29, 2012
BERLIN--Germany's main opposition Social Democrats Friday cast doubt on whether the German parliament would hold a crucial vote later in the day to pass legislation creating the permanent euro-zone bailout fund and ratifying the European fiscal pact.
Carsten Schneider, a senior SPD lawmaker and member of the influential budget committee, said the SPD parliamentary group would meet later in the day to evaluate the agreements made at the summit of European leaders in Brussels. The left-leaning opposition is considering postponing the vote on the European Stability Mechanism and the European fiscal pact, he said.
"Now it is a completely open question whether we will be able to ratify the ESM today or not," Mr. Schneider said on the sidelines of a budget committee meeting in the Reichstag building.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, caving in to Spanish and Italian demands at the summit, "suffered a stinging defeat" and made a "complete turnaround" on her previous positions in Brussels, Mr. Schneider said.
The question for German lawmakers is whether agreements made by Ms. Merkel in Brussels to allow the bailout funds to prop up Spanish banks and Italian bond markets requires further negotiation of the ESM and the fiscal pact before parliament can be asked to vote on the legislation.
The vote on a bill creating the ESM and on ratification of the European fiscal pact is scheduled to take place sometime after 1800 GMT Friday. Ms. Merkel is rushing back to Berlin from the Brussels summit to address parliament ahead of the landmark vote.
Norbert Barthle, a conservative lawmaker and senior member of the budget committee, said he saw no reason why parliament could not vote on the ESM and fiscal pact today. He said the decisions taken in Brussels affect issues that will be dealt with far in the future and do not impact today's vote.
okay, time to go long? and then whipsaw :)
ReplyDeletecircuit breaker are on RIMM now drawing from the low of May 7th through today a trendline look like were or now on the low channel. Scaling in to RIMM up to 50,000 shares today and triple that if it trades like the Dec 19th and 20th gap.
ReplyDeletewhy in G-d's name would you be focusing on RIMM in todays market. Waste of energy for sure.
ReplyDeleteIn deep
ReplyDeletehttp://scharts.co/MXj9w3
Great comments all, Keystone is playing catch-up after a wild start to the day. The bulls are running and they may have an easy time to keep the markets elevated thru the happy July 4th holiday upon us. Markets are very news-driven and react accordingly. Bad news can do the same to the indexes as the good news does. Just take it all as it comes. RIMM dropping down to the lows now. It is a speculative trade, it should be fine over time.
ReplyDeleteAmateur hour at the Apollo this morning... this puppy has a tendency to close on the lows and hang low for a couple day as referenced earlier. Additionally it appears like we are going go to close outside of the low band I'm going continue scale into my position I'm confident by next year this is company will belong to someone else. In the meantime I'll scalp the stock and roll the profits into continuously into a vertical call spread.
ReplyDelete+ 11:38:42 Stock RIMM SLD 10,200 7.490 ISLAND false 51.00
+ 10:56:57 Stock RIMM BOT 10,200 7.380 BYX + 1 false 20.50
To: Anonymous June 29, 2012 11:04 AM // We like active stocks... RiMM is just one of dozens of trades we will perform today. NOW came public today a very nice slap down and dead cat bounce love when that happens...
ReplyDeleteTotally understand MCAP. But RIMM? So many others to take
ReplyDelete