Keystone's Midday Market Action 6/18/12

No use recapping all the overnight drama, simply scroll back to catch up on the ongonig Greek Tragedy. Sticking to the technicals, the bulls needed to see any smidge of green in the futures and an upside move will launch but alas, the ten point jump Sunday evening in the S&P futures has collapsed to down 7, a 17-point turnaround. If this is celebration for a great outcome, what does the bad outcome look like? SPX 1343 will remain an important level to watch today.  As discussed on the weekend, the NYA 40-week MA is uber important since it forecasts the cyclical move in the markets.  Watch NYA 7660 closely, if price stays above, the bulls rule. If NYA drops under 7660, the bears are growling again and will put the kabash on any further market move higher. Also of interest is the financials sector. Watch XLF 14.43 which would launch the bulls higher. If the markets start to sell off strongly, watch the retail sector again, RTH 41.10. If this fails, markets will take an accelerated move lower. Thus, in a nutshell, SPX 1343, NYA 7660, XLF 14.43 and RTH 41.10 tells you everything you need to know today. Pre-market, XLF is 14.23-ish, bearish. The opening is coming up shortly.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 9:31 AM:  NYA drops under 7660, now printing 7612, so bears smile.  RTH is printing 41.79 well above 41.10 so bulls smile. Tech is moving coincidentally lower with the broad markets so this places into question, as well as the RTH, just how much oomph the bears have. It may shape up to be a pull your hair out sideways day from here, unless the bears push the RTH under 41.10, or if the bulls push the NYA back above 7667 (note the moving averages are constantly recalculating so the numbers continually change). The anticipated Greece election rally turns out to be a pig in a poke.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 10:20 AM:  Tech is leading the broad markets higher; AAPL is green. Here comes NYA, being pushed higher by the bulls. NYA is now printing 7657; the 40-week MA is 7669.  If the bulls punch another 12 points higher, the upside will wildly accelerate and the path ahead will be bullish.  The market bears must spank the NYA downwards immediately and prohibit 7669 with all their might. The SPX is now above the critical 1343, if it stays up in this range for a few minutes, bulls are going to push much higher. The SPX minute charts are negatively diverged which should help the bears.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 10:35 AM:  NYA came up to test the 40-week MA printing a HOD at 7661.28 but now printing 7650. The 40-week MA is 7668.34. This action tells you market direction today. If the NYA moves above 7668, a wild upside orgy will occur.  Otherwise, bears will keep pounding the bulls to stop the upside and push markets sideways today.  AAPL is up 8 and the tech sector is leading the broad markets upwards today; this makes it very difficult for the bears.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 11:09 AM:  SPX punched thru 1343 so that led to 1344 R, then 1347 R then a test of the 50-day MA at 1347.32; the HOD is 1346.59. Thus, the 50-day MA is holding as overhead resistance.  Reference Keystone's SPX S/R and moving average levels posted on the weekend by using the search box above, or simply scroll backwards a few messages, where these levels were forecasted ahead of time.  The broad indexes are stumbling indecisively sideways right now. If the bulls cannot punch thru NYA 7668, they got nothing. Natty is feeling lots of love over the last three days. Keystone's T short trade is going against him with money chasing into the dividend stocks; the money managers no doubt convincing Ma and Pa to place all their money into divvy stocks, every bubble needs a bag holder. Keystone remains patient with MNKD; it has come to life the last five days, for the good of all mankind.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 12:23 PM:  Markets are continuing the sideways vibe. Keystone's IDCC trade just made an obscene move, it is up 26% today, as always, it is better to be lucky than good. There will be no franks and beans tonight, tonight is hamburgers to celebrate. Perhaps Keystone should buy a new pair of shoes, but the current ones with holes in the soles are fine, they are only incovenient on a rainy day.  Keystone exited the IDCC long trade taking the money.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 12:59 PM:  The NYA cannot move above 7668 and the RTH cannot move below 41.10 so markets stumble sideways. Speaking of the TICK in the comments section, note how the high TICK print above +1000 occurred about 12:50 PM--exactly identifying the top for the markets movement in the minute time frames. A -900 TICK just occurred a minute or two ago which helps set a bottom in the minute time frame.  Now, more sideways.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 2:02 PM: Tech is leading the markets higher today. Dow Industrials are negative, however. VIX dropped under 20 and now dropped under 19 which is market bullish as it drifts lower.  NYA went up to tap on the 40-week MA again, and failed, bearish, but the bulls are only a few points away from igniting the upside orgy. Keystone would like to add some TZA but being stingy on entry, 20.23-ish would be a nice potential entry, price is now printing 20.35. T just went negative, quick, Keystone needs a few extra hands to help him push it down the steps.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 2:14 PM:  Keystone bot more TZA, price came down and looks good with positive divergence in the minute charts; TICK just spiked to +1000. Note that the NYA moved above 7668 (40-week MA) now printing 7676, see if it holds, if so, the TZA add will appear foolish since an upside orgy will begin. Dow is now positive.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 2:23 PM: NYA is staying above the 40-week MA, very bullish. SPX minute charts continue to favor the bears for the minutes or hour or so ahead, however, due to negative divergence. Hence, a bull-bear struggle is at its peak right now. The NYA action over the short time ahead will determine the winner.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 2:45 PM: Hello, NYA falls back below the 40-week MA, bearish, the soap opera continues. See if the NYA stays under 7668, or not.The negative divergence in the minute charts are creating this spank down in progress. The SPX went up to test the 50-day MA at 1347.70, HOD is now 1348.22, but received an immediate spank down. The 50-day MA is holding as strong overhead R.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 3:42 PM:  NYA fell on its sword, its last attempt to overtake the 40-week MA was at 3:05 PM but it folded like a cheap suit after a couple minutes, continuing lower, now printing 7660. Thus, the bears have a feather in their caps but the bulls may try to pluck that feather in the final minutes. We knew that the NYA 40-week MA would be key today and that came true in spades.

Note Added 6/18/12 at 4:00 PM:  NYA closes below the 40-week MA so the bears walk home with a very large feather in their caps. The Friday move by the bulls may have been a one day wonder.   The battle will continue tomorrow.  The NYA closes at 7662, the numbers are settling out still yet, and the 40-week MA is 7668.63. The bears will try to push lower creating increasing market negativity while the bulls need seven points higher to receive their upside market orgy.