Keystone's June Seasonality

The "Sell in May and Go Away" adage worked out well this year. May was a sick month for traders positined long.  The month of June is typically up about +0.2% on average so a flat to small gain would be expected for this month. The largest stock market gains are made from November thru April, not so much May thru October. The tech sector slows thru the summer. The homebuilders tend to be weak April thru July.  Keystone has made a couple round trips in SRS and continues to like it moving forward. SRS is an inverse ETF that shorts the real estate sector.

June is the kickoff to the Hurricane Season.  This year started early. The season ends in early November. Hurricane season news updates are released at 2:30 PM EST each Tuesday so we will have to see if this schedule is in place this year. When a hurricane starts moving across the Atalntic Ocean headed for the East Coast or Gulf, oil and natty prices typically escalate in response to oil rigs and terminals shutting down for the storms.  House supply stores such as HD and LOW typically move higher as hurricanes approach.  The news channels will run video clips of patrons leaving the stores with plywood (to board up windows), generators and other storm preparedness items to whip up the excitment. GNRC supplies generators.  URI supplies rental equipment once the storm clean-up begins.  Also take a look at insurers such as ALL. Other possible hurricane plays are HRC, NUE, OC, TTC or even comfort foods to soothe troubled souls with CPB, CAKE and KFT. These tickers may work for other Mother Nature and terrorism events. Electric and energy grid companies are worth watching as well such as MTZ, MYRG, GE, ENOC, AMSC, CPST, PWR, etc...

June typically hosts conferences such as the ASCO cancer conference ongoing now and typically a diabetes coference this month as well so tickers such as JNJ, CELG, SPPI, ALTH, BMY, AZN, ALKS and others are worth a look. Markets have been down 19 of the last 21 times for the week after June triple witching, this is the week of 6/18/12. Russell 1000 and 2000 rebalancing typically occurs at the second to last Friday which would be 6/22/12 this year causing lots of volume and movement in the tickers affected. June is the official end to the second quarter, EOQ2, and the end to the first half of the year, EOH1. Window dressing comes in to play to end the month of June since it is quarter and half-year end, so typically market buoyancy occurs in the final week of June.  The last couple days of June typically finish flat.  Thus, the back half of June is typically weak the week after OpEx but then markets recover moving into the end of the month. Markets tend to develop a trading range for the summer months. June is typically a bad month for the XHB, XLI, XLF, XLP and XLY sectors so for long players, consider buying them once they are beaten down.

Taking a look at the June timeline ahead:
6/4/12; Full moon, typically markets move higher into the full moon.
6/11/12; OpEx Monday is typically up.
6/12/12; OpEx Tuesday into Wednesday is typically up. A major Bradley turn date occurs today. A turn window for markets is open from 6/5/12 thru 6/20/12.
6/15/12; Consumer Sentiment; OpEx.
6/17/12; Greece elections.
6/18/12; Monday after Friday OpEx typically moves opposite to Friday's action. This week is typically a down week in June.
6/19/12; Housing Starts; New moon, typically markets move lower into the new moon.
6/20/12; FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference.
6/25/12; Window dressing now thru Friday.
6/26/12; Consumer Confidence.
6/28/12; Euro Summit.
6/29/12; Consumer Sentiment. EOM. EOQ2. EOH1.