European Bond Yield Summary 6/11/12

10-Year Yields:
Greece 28.94%
Portugal 10.99%
Spain 6.03%
Italy 5.66%
Belgium 3.00%
France 2.56%
Austria 2.28%
Netherlands 1.92%
Finland 1.73%
U.K. 1.69%
U.S. 1.68%
Germany 1.39%

The Spain bailout over the weekend is calming bond markets only slightly. In fact, Spain remains over 6% and only 10 basis points lower since Friday. Portugal has dropped from over 12% to 11% over the last couple weeks with the ECB's help. Spain and Italy are the ones to watch.  The Spain bailout is the fifth bailout in Europe; Greece (first), then Ireland, then Porugal, then Greece (second bailout), now Spain. The 6% level can be used as a base line for Spain and Europe moving forward. Under 6% and calm is returning to Europe, over 6.5% and the next bailout for Spain to save their entire financial system will be on the table.

The Spain-Gemany Spread is 464. Over 500 indicates stress and is where the spread was in May and into early June. France-Germany Spread is 117 which is no real overall improvement; the spread is in the 110-120 area the last few weeks. The France-Germany Spread is an indicator for European turmoil. France represents socialistic tendencies while Germany represents the harder-working and austerity tendencies. If below the range shown things are improving and the debt crisis is calming (France yields are falling and Germany rising).  If the spread moves above 120 towards 130, 140 and higher, this signals trouble in paradise (France yields climbing higher and Germany yields falling). At 117, the European debt crisis continues to sit on the fence, a slow cancer metastasizing.

Note Added 6/11/12 at 7:04 AM EST: The Spain 10-year yield has steadily increased over the last couple hours and is now at 6.30% above Friday's numbers.  The U.S. equity futures leak as the open approaches but the S&P's remain about 8 higher.  Traders realize the euro and equities pop is mainly a short-covering rally on tap and the bounce will likely be faded by many.

Note Added 6/11/12 at 12:03 PM:  Spain yield hit 6.5% and Italy poked above 6%. If you have a bell, start ringing it, there is trouble in paradise, we could see this taking shape earlier this morning with the Spain yield.