Stock chart patterns and technical analysis (TA) explained simply. Disclaimer: This blog and all its contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade or invest based on any information seen on this blog. Please read Terms of Service. The K E Stone blog sites (Keybot the Quant) are blacklisted by Google, so enjoy the ad-free experience, and only use the Donate button when supporting the sites.
Pages
▼
Thursday, May 10, 2012
NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week MA Cross Secular Bull Market
One of Keystone's secular signals (see the Secular page) is the NYA weekly chart with 40-week MA. Above the 40-week signifies secular bullish markets, below is secular bearish markets. Chairman Bernanke announced QE2 in August-September 2010 which launced the markets out of the secular bear and into a secular bull market. Last July, however, the markets dropped into a secular bear market as the August waterfall crash gained momo. More QE to the rescue. Thi stime the ECB was pumping money with the LTRO announcement isn December which launched the markets into a secular bull market again.
Note that markets are not moving up due to a healthy global economy, quite the contrary, the crack cocaine stimulus is what pumps markets higher. As the money runs out, the world will be in even worse condition than if the medicine was taken in 2009 as it should have been if you believe in capitalism. Instead, the markets move towards a Japan-style funk for years to come. All this aside, price is now only two hundred points away from signaling the return to a secular bear market. Make no mistake, if NYA drops under 7620, we enter a whole new sphere of market mayhem moving forward. It would be a disasterous signal for markets. The only plus is that it will set things up for the recovery when QE3 is announced.
I need to take a drive in the country because it take conviction to lay up for the big short again... At best I see a throw back rally the MACD crossed and I heard in the back ground the chatter on CNBC and how one of the panelist was discussing QE and he derived the conclusion from a report (which one I don't know I'll wait to try and get video replay of the interview) that QE isn't going to happen. We all know what happens then concern of the same seems its the only thing preventing the drop and considering only weeks ago how the futures melted up its truly a war between the factions. I think its time to choose a side and hedge it accordingly until the price action defines it's self because these market move to fast.
MCAP, projection would be markets moving up to allow utilties sector to roll over, then that market move down will be a larger move down. CPC has to move above 1.2 before the downside begins to be satisfied.
I need to take a drive in the country because it take conviction to lay up for the big short again... At best I see a throw back rally the MACD crossed and I heard in the back ground the chatter on CNBC and how one of the panelist was discussing QE and he derived the conclusion from a report (which one I don't know I'll wait to try and get video replay of the interview) that QE isn't going to happen. We all know what happens then concern of the same seems its the only thing preventing the drop and considering only weeks ago how the futures melted up its truly a war between the factions. I think its time to choose a side and hedge it accordingly until the price action defines it's self because these market move to fast.
ReplyDeleteMCAP, projection would be markets moving up to allow utilties sector to roll over, then that market move down will be a larger move down. CPC has to move above 1.2 before the downside begins to be satisfied.
ReplyDeleteI waiting and watching slow and steady.
ReplyDelete