Keystone's NYA 40-Week MA Cross Indicator Signals Secular Bear

One of Keystone's key secular signals (reference the Secular Signal page on this site) is when the NYA price crosses the 40-week MA.  Markets began the QE1 rally in March 2009 into the April 2010 top. The secular bear was back in the summer of 2010 and markets stumbled lower mired in serious deflation. Chairman Bernanke, always pledging to avoid deflation at all costs, jumped into action with QE2 that saved the markets from going over the falls and created the secular bull into the August waterfall crash late last summer. Once again, stimulus to the rescue. The Fed began Operation Twist and other shenanigans but more importantly, the ECB runs their printing presses with LTRO1 and 2 which created the secular bull move from December 2011 until two weeks ago.

This NYA indicator says the broad markets have fallen into a secular bear market pattern here forward.  Price can reverse course this week so watch the 7637 level like a hawk.  Note that last week, the shadow on the candle shows a successful back kiss of this critical moving average so this opens the door to lower prices now. The red lines for the indicators are all weak and bleak as well, with the lower low in price, indicating that lower lows in price would be deisred (no positive divergence). Last week may have simply been a dead cat bounce. If NYA retakes 7637 heading higher, the index shorts will feel a whole lot of pain and the bulls will throw confetti. If the NYA stays under 7637, the bears are cruising along on easy street creating further negativity day after day.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anythng you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.