Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flipped short this morning at SPX 1382. The program was flat for the last trade but the actual trading gave back a percent. We will see if this bearish move has legs. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw today or Monday.
More information is found at Keybot's web site;
http://www.keybotthequant.blogspot.com
I'm a big fan of Keybot but the signal was posted two hours later when SPX already dropped to 1373. I know this isn't a subscription service, but it would have been nice if Keybot did not wait 2 hours to let us know. But thanks for everything that you do here!
ReplyDeleteThat would be nice!
ReplyDeleteI turned bearish today when the market started to drop and turned red. I will probably turn bullish when the market goes up and turns green.
ReplyDeleteHello all, Alex there are logistics involved and obviously the priorities are with making the moulah and not concerned about the timing of the update. Sometimes they are posted faster, sometimes not. This is why the descriptions tell you what to look for ahead of time. "If XLF loses 15.20 (which changed slightly to 15.18 since the robot constantly recalculates) Keybot will likely go short." So as soon as you see XLF fail you knew the answer, then the VIX above 18.10 was icing on the cake for bears.
ReplyDeleteRemember, patience, in trading. You have watched how Keybot operates so next week you may see Keybot staying committed to the short side but the SPX may climb, and climb above the 1382 where the algo entered short in fact. So many times you can actually receive a better entry with the delay. It's all good. It was a beautiful summer day, it is always good to never let them go by without enjoying them.
As a rule of thumb, if you see XLF staying under 15.18 and VIX over 18.14 it is smooth sailing for bears. Even if XLF moves above 15.18 bears will likely stay in control with VIX above 18.14. Also remember that if the markets move in one direction strongly a few handles of S&P's will not matter.
I know timing is not your first priority, so excuse me. Thank you for the excellent content on the blog. If I can make a suggestion, perhaps the keybot signals can be put on twitter as it should not take you more than a few seconds, and can be done even from a smart phone.
ReplyDeleteHello Alex, Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator are both on Twitter. Remember, patience, the SPX can easily head higher next week, up above the 1382 entry level that Keybot triggered at, while the algo remains bearish, so that would actually permit a better entry short next week than Keybot's 1382. Then again, with Sunday election turmoil, the markets may simply continue south for a few days. All the messages, Twitter, Facebook, the web sites themselves, are all updated after the more important priorities, involving lots of moulah, are handled first.
DeleteDear KS:
ReplyDeleteI want to thank you for all your wisdom and teaching about
these crazy markets. I am trying to learn TA and use it
to the best of my knowledge. Your commentary along with TA
is so valuable. I especially like when you bring in all the craziness from Europe and our Central Banksters. I hope we will be able to look back at this period in time
and realize how we navigated through a super rigged market. I use to be a long term investor who studied companies and believed in their growth story. I am now a not so good trader. Thanks again for all your hard work and your generousity in sharing this information.
Most importantly, enjoy these beautiful days.
Hello Anon, the main starting point in developing your skills as a trader is to study your own personality, and honestly assess your mannerisms, preferences, etc... All the skilled traders will tell you that trading is essentially a self-journey in psychoanalysis. As a starting point, assess whether you are suited more to be a fundie trader (fundamental analysis that uses numbers, PE's, cash flow, etc.., more long-term in nature) or a TA trader (technical analysis using charts, more short-term in nature). If you are a musician, writer, painter, artist, maybe a marketing person, or any type of visual person, or if you prefer say the history and English subjects rather than mathematics, you are probably suited more for TA. If you are an engineer, acountant, perhaps obsessive-compulsive, detail-oriented, organizational, you may prefer fundamental analysis. Of course, most traders use a combination of both. Keystone has a strong analytical background but also is a musician, writer and artist, so, luck handed him both sides. Trading is a long journey where you learn something each day until you croak. Keystone traded nearly 100% as a fundamental trader in the 1990's, then as the dot-com bubble approached started to develop an interest in charts, you can tell right away if the viusal aspects click or not, and all these years later, Keystone trades about 95% based on TA and about 5% based on fundies. But another trader, just as or more successful, can be trading 95% fundies and 5% TA. Get in touch wiht yourself and understand who you are and which way to go.
DeleteHi all,
ReplyDeleteKS gave us clear signals and dropped a strong hint he'd be busy. I don't know about you, but I'm trying to piece together as much as I can and for as long as KS enjoys his blog. I personally wouldn't enjoy this for long if I felt tethered to it. Those of us who don't yet know how better learn to fish while we have this opportunity!
- Ande
Hello Ande, you have the right idea, you want to study all the tools and concepts here and adapt different ones for your own trading program which is constantly under development and refinement. With hard work and study you will cook great fish dinners the rest of your life.
DeleteKS, it would be nice if you can set up a real time chart center that has all the chart that you are monitoring put up there for all of us to follow.
ReplyDeleteWe should be able to follow your thoughts and comments real time when the site is set up.
I do not mind pay a subscription to join if you were to set up this site.
Nice works as always.
Hello Timer, it is essentially a time constraint issue. That is why Keystone suspended his Public Charts on Stockcharts.com. It is difficult to keep up, and besides, it does cut into fun and frolic time which is the main priority. If you are interested in any ticker, try the search box above since previous charts are archived.
DeletePerhaps over time something can be figured out. These current markets, all year long, are very atypical of prior years. Years ago, long periods of almost brain-dead trading would occur, such as the five year rally from 2003 to 2008, that provides plenty of time to explore trading ideas and charts. Ever since the 2008 crash, the markets are very tricky to maneuver and require a lot of attention. Keystone receives continuous offers from the industry and the dedicated readership here but sitting on a lawn chair on a nice summer day is much too enticing to pass up.