SPX Daily Chart Showing Bradley Turn Dates for 2011-2012

The bottom on 4/11/12 occurs exactly at the Bradley turn date on Wednesday.  Next Bradley turn date is 4/23/12 so a window opens for a turn between 4/16/12 and 4/30/12 shown by the blue circle in the right margin.  Markets may head higher into early next week for a turn down to occur, or can move lower starting today to perhaps set up a turn higher for next week, simply take it one day at a time.  Considering OpEx week, this would hint at market buoyancy early next week while at the same time the new moon next Saturday hints at market weakness in the back half of the week. Thus, market buoyancy may continue into early next week when the Bradley turn may affect markets and create the next leg down for markets starting mid-week.

The double circles are the major turns, July 2011 was the top before the waterfall crash. The major turn at the end of last year resulted in a market melt-up into April 2012. Mid-March was the latest major turn date which identifies a significant market top albeit a bit early.

A look back at 2011 shows how the Bradley turns were very accurate at identifying market trend changes. Remember, the Bradley dates do not identify direction, the date only identifies where a trend change will occur. Thus, if the markets are trending up a reversal down would be in order, or visa versa, but once in a while an acceleration move occurs where the Bradley date results in a melt-up or melt-down move. For further information on the Bradley model, reference Donald Bradley, Peter Eliades, Arch Crawford and the Amanita Market Forecasting sites for additonal information.