Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 4/25/12

AAPL earnings are leading the parade today, the Nasdapple is set to jump higher so tech will lead the broad indexes higher.  Durable Goods are on tap for 8:30 AM and Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM. A 5-Year Note Auction occurs at 11:30 AM.  The steady drum beat continues with the FOMC Rate Announcement at 12:30 PM followed by Chairman Bernanke's Press, er Desk, Conference.  Of interest is if Bernanke says the word 'accomodation', to what extent the 'low rates until late 2014' phrase is reinforced, or not, and the updated forecasts from the Fed members, noting whether any members are changing from hawkish to dovish or dovish to hawkish. The markets may pivot at 2 PM.

From the technical perspective, watch RTH 40.96, XLF 15.10 and VIX 18.50. All three are bullish with retail and financials above the levels listed and volatility below.  With the Apple bounce on tap, these three should maintain their bullish posture but they require watching nonetheless.  For the SPX starting at 1372, the bulls only need four upside points to launch the upside and the futures show over double that on tap.  SPX S/R is 1403, 1401, 1399, 1394, 1391, 1389, 1388.32 (20-day MA), 1388, 1385, 1382, 1380.38 (50-day MA), 1378, 1376.64 (10-day MA), 1375, 1372, 1370.58, 1370, 1368 and 1366. Look for lots of action around the 50-day MA.

Keystone's algorithm, Keybot the Quant, will likely flip long today if the Apple rally takes hold.  The projection of a gap up move is important since sometimes markets gap up but within the first 90 minutes only to reverse.  Typically the up move is reinforced but the markets will have to trade thru 11 AM before the full affects of the Apple rally are realized and digested by the broad indexes.