Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 4/24/12

Facebook, future ticker FB, on the Nasdaq, announces a drop in profits last evening as expenses climb higher. The site now boasts 900 million users but one wonders how many are actually companies, businesses, marketing outfits, spammers, and others in contrast to actual 'people' users. NFLX is falling down the steps, dropping 17% after earnings. TXN is in line. T earnings will be interesting to note ahead of AAPL earnings after the bell.  The Nasdapple will be interesting to watch today.  At this writing, the S&P futures are up 0.38% with the Nasdaq is up 0.54% so this adds credibilty to an upward market move at the open with tech leading the broad market higher.

To gauge the upside market strength, watch to see if XLF moves back above 15.10 and if the VIX drops back under 18.50, both moves would favor the market bulls and send the SPX upwards towards the 1379-1380 level which is very critical resistance for today. The 50-day MA is 1379.80 as well. The SPX begins at 1367. If the bulls can push upwards to print a 1379 handle, the markets should accelerate higher. The bears need to keep the XLF below 15.10, and the VIX above 18.50, and push the SPX under 1359 to accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1360-1377 is sideways action today.

The RTH is above 41.00 and Keystone's SPX:VIX Ratio Indicator is above 68 both favoring the market bulls. Watch for any change here which would immediately send markets lower.

The housing sector is important this morning with Case-Shiller, New Home Sales and FHFA House Price Index data.  A market pivot point will occur at 10 AM upon release of the Consumer Confidence data. A 2-Year Note Auction occurs at 1 PM. And of course, Apple is the star of the show today; look for $11.80 on EPS, 41 B for top line revenue, iPhones 35 M, iPads 13 M, Mac 4 M, after the closing bell. Apple's blowout earnings in mid-January were the main catalyst and driver of the rally for the broad indexes thru February and March. Can they deliver again? The FOMC Two-Day Meeting begins today but the real drama from the Fed will occur tomorrow after lunch time.  The Bradley turn window remains open this week identifying a trend change to occur in the markets.

Note Added 4/24/12 at 8:36 AM: Nasdaq is now red and no longer leading the upside this hints that the upside market move projected after the open does not have any oomph. AAPL keeps drifting lower affecting the Nasdaq, er Nasdapple, negatively.

Note Added 4/24/12 at 9:10 AM:  Case-Shiller Housing Index laid some gloomy news at the feet of the markets minutes ago turning the S&P's red to flat. The jittery markets now place an increased amount of pressure on the Consumer Confidence number at 10 AM.