AAPL and the Nasdapple leads markets higher after the opening bell. The Nasdaq is up over 2%. XLF is 15.36 handily above the 15.10 danger level, bullish. VIX has a 17 handle well under 18.50, bullish. RTH is 41.39 above the 40.96 danger level, bullish. The SPX shot thru the 50-day MA at 1381 and is now testing resistance at the 20-day MA at 1387, now printing 1387.34 punching thru this critical moving average. See if it holds, or not.
Since a gap up occurred, allow the markets at least 90 minutes to settle in and determine how much fire power the Apple rally really holds for markets today. The semiconductors, SOX, are popping nine points to print 406 but that remains a far cry away from 417 and higher that the bulls need to develop a sustainable upside rally. AAPL filled the gap at 605-ish, and punched up thru the 20-day MA at 608-ish, now printing 612, this is all bull-friendly, a back kiss of 608-ish will be in order. For the SPX, price is exploring S/R at 1394, 1391, 1389, 1387 (20-day MA).
Key
ReplyDeletejust went all in - DGLD
i think gold is about to resolve itself - obviously i am thinking its going south....
wish me luck... bring out the stretcher if fed talks QE3 this afternoon
good luck to you
The whipsaw is making Keybot buy high and sell low. Do you think it would be a good idea to put the signal on a delay or require a double-confirmation (meaning wait 1 extra day before switching) just to avoid the whipsaw?
ReplyDeleteIf we can't even hold the 20MA on the SPX, it doesn't say much for the durability of this rally. Of course it all depends on what comes out of Helicopter Ben's mouth at 2:15. But I've added to my shorts and bought some long volatility. I coule probably take the next two or three months off and finish ahead. Thanks for everything, KS. (Arnie, I enjoy your posts too.)
ReplyDeleteWhere Keybot has his problems is in a market that's turning...just like many traders. When the mkt is one directional, Keybot does very well. The market will be much lower later in the year.
ReplyDeleteKS, several well-respected Elliot Wavers have the whole run-up since Dec'11, possibly even Oct' 11 labeled as a B-wave (corrective). What makes me believe they are right is that Frost and Prechter in "Elliot Wave Principle", describe a B-waves as: phonies, sucker plays, bull-traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality and institutional complacency (or both). B-waves, they continue, often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks [can we say AAPL in this case.... !!!!?????], are onconfirmed by other averages/markets [Yep, not all markets have been going gangbusters the last few months...] and are not strong. If the analyst can say to himself "there's something wrong with this market" [and we've been saying that for months now], then changes are it's a B-wave.
ReplyDeleteAll in all, I think a lot speaks for a B-wave, that topped in early April, don't you think?.
I would have to say that a "P-Brain" wave has basically hit every shorter or sore loser that can't see that the bull run is part of the beginning of a recovery based upon new sets of factors, that none of you "P-Brians" cans et your technically wrapped heads a round. it's a new system and a new market, and all your tech analysis is worth yesterdays hot dog.
ReplyDeleteBill
Short 3 ES no now 4 just got triggered Im looking for a little relief pull back to to daily 20 MA then up go again... 15 minute ES chart has a nice ascending triangle here so close to the edge...
ReplyDeleteShouldn't Keybot be turning long now? I was expecting that at end of day, but lets see what tomorrow brings.
ReplyDeleteKeybot turns long after the market goes up and down after it goes down...Duh
ReplyDeleteHello all, playing catch up from today. Richarab, take it easy with something like DGLD, that is an ETN which is different than an ETF, the ETN's are shakier. They are best used as very short term trades and the ETN's are best avoided period.
ReplyDeleteAlex, nope, whipsaws are all part of the fun. Today was a market inflection point due to AAPL, that outcome is a large move either way, it happened to be up. Last year, during the first half of the year, Keybot was up about 7% gave all that back, then went up 7% again, gave that back, then markets started making firmer commitments to direction. Time will tell how it plays out. Watch for another whipsaw back down this week.
Weaver, Bernanke said 'accomodation' so this is like handing out crack to the addicts (QE to the traders).
Arnie, Keystone is not well versed on the B-waves.
Bill, a hungry person would be thankful to receive yesterday's hotdog.
MCAP, the NYAD hints at the same idea.
Sun, yep.
Anon, yep, and perhaps another whipsaw may occur this week. This behavior highlights how close of a struggle it is between bulls and bears right now. Remember, Keybot is charting the smoothest path possible thru the entire year so it is not designed to react in the VST frame. One side or the other should commit soon.