The other sector to watch is utilities, UTIL. As long as UTIL stays under 463, this will foster increased negativity in the broad markets moving forward. Pay attention to UTIL during the first ten minutes of trading. The SPX needs less than three points higher, to touch the 1411 handle, to set up an upside run, but the futures are currently not obliging. The bears need to push down to 1401 to ignite strong market selling. A move thru 1402-1410 is sideways action. The ISM at 10 AM will cause a market pivot point. Watch the energy markets closely since they will react the most to the ISM. The trading week is only four days this week due to the Good Friday holiday. Markets tend to be buoyant the two days in front of the three-day holiday weekends so if market bears want to make a move lower they will need to get things rolling early in the week.
Watch CRB 312, JJC 48.83 and UTIL 463 since these three muskateers will dictate broad market direction today. The dollar just turned positive which is bear-friendly, although it is flat for the most part. Euro printing lows of the session.
Note Added 4/2/12 at 10:20 AM: UTIL remains under 463 although it keeps trying to recover today. Thus, utes have now moved into the bear camp with CRB and these two will create increased market negativity. The broad indexes bounced and continue to recover today from the 10 AM data pivot point with the SPX touching 1411 so an immediate move to 1412 occurs, and perhaps more on tap. Next resistance is 1413 and 1414. As long as the CRB is under 312 and UTIL under 463, however, market bears are fine. JJC is printing 49.82 well above the 48.83 market danger level as traders boost copper trying to front run any coming quantitative easing move. Keep watching CRB 312 and UTIL 463.
Note Added 4/2/12 at 12:38 PM: UTIL remains under 463 but it came up to place a HOD at 462.22. So the bulls are pushing hard to turn things around but the bears still control the utes. Likewise, the CRB remains under 312. JJC, copper, is running higher today, so traders believe in the growth story. AAPL is up 15 bucks so say no more, Apple is the markets. SPX accelerated higher after it broke thru the 1411 level identified for today and took out the previous intraday high this year at 1419.15. SPX S/R is the gap fill at 1425, 1424, 1422, 1419.15 (intraday high this year), 1417, 1416.51 (intraday closing high), 1414, 1413, 1410. SPX HOD is 1420.82 so the 1422 R is the next key resistance. Keep watching CRB 312 and UTIL 463. This is high drama to start the week.
Note Added 4/2/12 at 2:53 PM: UTIL remains under 463 but CRB pokes above 312, so the bulls pulled the CRB back into their camp. AAPL is up over 16 bucks and causing tech to lead the broad markets. SPX testing the 1422 R right now, wild price movement, see if it punches thru 1422 R, or not. UTIL is at 461, see if the bulls try to goose it into the close, they need the utes to cooperate and currently the utes remain in the bear camp.
wow, tons of drama and excitement for the first day of the week, of the month; and considering it's a 4-day week only. Seems like a lot of cash is flowing in (not unexpectantly given today's date). 1440 seems perfect target IMHO as There’s a possible confluence of resistance levels late this week around 1,440 based on long term trendlines and the current uptrend(line)! enjoy the ride KS :-)
ReplyDeleteBTW, keybot still short??? That be kinda -hmmm what shall we call it-??? But, I think that indicates that the underlying basic fundementals of this rally are screwy. Not very broad (e.g. the russel 2000 is severely lacking, and if the small caps are not keeping up, says enough to me). I'll cash in my longs between 1425-1435 and be very happy.
I am long too. I flip to long when keybot flip to short. Now I am waiting for keybot to flip to long.... that usually mark the top. I am doing very well using keystone as a contrarion indicator.
ReplyDeleteboil came up for some air before diving again.
ReplyDeleteHello Arnie, SPX is close to the 1425 gap fill now. Keybot is short although CRB sneaks above 312, UTIL still below 463, see if the utes are goosed into the close. Keybot has allowed SPX price movement of as much as 22 handles, maybe more, although rarely, without changing. If UTIL moves above 463 by th eclose there is a high possibility of Keybot moving to the long side but if UTIL stays under 463 the quant will likely stay short.
ReplyDeleteHello Anon, If UTIL moves above 463 then Keybot will flip to the long side so that will give you something to watch.
Keybot - does NOT seem to be working here with a short position, but this could be a fakeout pop/top with a nice drop soon. Seems like Keybot has been off his best lately. Maybe just bad luck, but Bradley turn not working as of yet either, may need more time.
ReplyDeleteas long as BTFD works, I'll do so. Hardly any -if any- of the bradley, Gann-cylces, etc I've seen over the past 3 months have worked. IMHO, all this global liquidity sloshing around is screwing everything up. The bull run is over once we're below 1340ish IMHO, well boys and girls that's a looooong way to go. (of course I'll have closed out all my long positions long before that ;-) )
ReplyDeletehello Anon, nope, Keybot is doing its thing, this is the way it operates, it does not mind taking a loss if it has to but since UTIL did not move above 463, it did not flip long. So watch CRB 312 and UTIL 463 tomorrow since they will tell you the story.
ReplyDeleteHello Arnie, the Bradley turns correlated to market inflections but that is all they turned out to be whereas typically they result in longer moves. The price move up for SPX today is a higher high so it locks in the negative divergence on the daily chart just like five days ago. A spankdown should occur now and it will be a matter of how much the bears can press it. CRB and UTIL will provide the answers at the open tomorrow.