Keystone's Midday Market Action 4/20/12

Looks like a sideways day on tap, the SPX unable to move above 1390.50, while also unable to push under 1370.  After closing yesterday under the 50-day MA at 1379.64, the SPX is back above now; price is moving sideways thru the bracket formed by the 50 on the downside and the 20-day MA at 1392.41 on the top side.  The direction SPX exits this bracket is important.

SOX is puking today with a 408 handle printing now so the bulls will not receive follow thru without it moving up into the 420's.  At the other end, the VIX collapsed at the open, as would be expected with the markets heading higher, now printing 17.06 well under the 19 level.  Financials are weak today but XLF is at 15.27 remaining in bull territory above 15.10. Utilities are strong, UTIL ten points above the critical 451 area.  RTH remains bullish as well. Thus, nothing has changed in the markets, the bull-bear struggle continues.

Tech is not leading the upside today, AAPL is red, so this hints that the buoyancy in the broad indexes does not have any oomph, just as the SOX weakness also does not verify the up move in the markets today.  AAPL 580 is key support and Apple is testing right now. Watch this closely, bounce or die. The 8 MA crossed up thru the 34 MA for the SPX 30-minute chart which does verify the ongoing market up move. Watch the 1384.28 level closely, SPX now printing one point above. Markets are buoyant but label this action as sideways into the weekend.  The last hour of trading should ramp up. If Apple loses this 580 support, now printing 580 and change, it will likely pull the markets lower and send AAPL to the 50-day MA at 569.34.

Note Added 4/20/12 at 1:27 PM:  Look at that, Apple failure, collapse thru the important 580 support.  Note the markets dropping in concert. Apple now sporting a 577 handle, a four point drop in five minutes. The markets maintain an overall sideways move into the weekend. Watch for a potential back kiss by AAPL of the 580 resistance (which was support a few minutes ago until it failed) where price will decide to move back up and over 580, and the markets will move higher into the weekend, or Apple collapses from the 580 back kiss and the markets sell off into the close. She's at 577 now, see if she comes back up. SPX is under the critical 1384.28 level mentioned above which should be viewed as bearish.

Note Added 4/20/12 at 1:44 PM:  Note how the SPX sits at 1384, the same level as where Keybot the Quant entered long a week ago.  In other words, the markets have gone no where since Keybot triggered off the 1384 print days ago. Just think of the turmoil up and down over the last few days with Keybot simply idling along unimpressed by bulls or bears. The robots are always smarter than the humans.  Apple is making its way up now, printing 577.75, look for that potential 580 back kiss which will determine the broad index movement into the close.

Note Added 4/20/12 at 3:01 PM:  AAPL continues to leak lower, the Nasdaq is red so tech is leading the broad markets lower, pulling the markets off the highs earlier in the day.  The SPX continues along in a sideways move today.  The 50-day MA is 1379.53, price came down to bounce off this critival moving average 45 mintues ago at 2:10 PM.  Price is coming down again for a test, bounce or die.

Note Added 4/20/12 at 3:25 PM:  SPX 30-minute chart was provided to show the drama playing out. Markets may wait until the Monday Bradley turn day to commit.  Above 1384 and bulls are happy, below 1378 and bears are happy.  Note that Apple continues lower towards testing its 50-day MA at 569.17.  Whoopsies daisies, SPX just lost the 50-day MA. If bears push under 1378 here they can receive an ugly close.

Note Added 4/20/12 at 3:30 PM:  8 MA stabbing down thru the 34 MA for the 30-minute chart is bearish, causing one bear to search for the bag of confetti so he can stay on standby.  The stochastics for the same chart are now under 50%, ROC under zero, this is bearish as well.  Price continues to play at the 50-day MA, it is a matter of how bad the bears want it, all they have to do is push, a 1377 handle for SPX should start the downside.

Note Added 4/20/12 at 4:02 PM:  The bulls held on by a hair to finish the day.  On OpEx, the finish typically sets up an opposite direciton move for Monday, so this hints at an up morning on tap for Monday. XLF closed at the lows, at 15.18 only eight pennies above causing another leg down for markets.  The 50-day MA is 15.17 so this is more drama on tap for next week. The weakness in tech is what is expected due to seasonality. Q4 is the best quarter for tech and this year it rippled into Q1, fueled by AAPL's mid-January earnings. Traders are taking the money off the tech table now.