Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 4/30/12

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Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Monday, 4/30/12:  The European debt crisis drama continues; Greece, Portugal, Hungary, Spain, Italy and France all remain at risk with yields moving up towards the November-December 2011 levels. Last week, Moody’s downgraded Spain’s debt two notches with negative outlook but the markets ignored the news (the downgrade was expected).  The France runoff election occurs on Sunday, 5/6/12.  Watch the European spreads closely such as the France-Germany 10-Year Yield Spread. Congress is not in session which is a market positive. Watch for China triple R cut that would pump markets higher with liquidity. Earnings continue this week.  Earnings have beat lowered expectations for the most part, about 75% beating which is about what is to be expected, although many companies are reporting lower revenue as compared to a year earlier—which is going in the wrong direction if folks are expecting companies to hire.  EOM today-monthly charts receive a new data point. Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM-a Fed favorite. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM. Farm Prices 3 PM. Lots of Fed Heads speaking every day this week. Fed’s Fisher speaks 5:30 PM. Earnings: APC, BALT, FLS, FMC, FST, GNK, GLRE, HAR, HLF, HEP, HUM, JEC, JKS, LDK, L, LMNX, MAS, MCK, NYX, PCX, PCL, KWR, FIRE, SBAC, SCCO, SPF, TEN, VECO, WPI, WPP, ZOLL.

·         Tuesday, 5/1/12: RBA (Australia) 25 bip rate cut probably priced into the markets but a 50 bip cut would bounce commodity and equity markets.  Fed’s Lacker speaks. Motor Vehicle Sales. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 9:30 AM.  Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index 10 AM. ISM will affect the energy markets. Look for a market pivot point at 10 AM. Fed’s Williams speaks 11 AM. Fed’s Evans 12:30 PM. Fed’s Plosser speaks 2 PM.   Earnings: ACUR, ACI, ADM, ADP, AVP, BIIB, BRKR, CBT, CCC, CARB, CECO, CBS, CERS, CHK, CMI, CNW, CPO, CMI, CW, DPZ, ECL, EMR, EEP, FISV, FWLT, GGP, GNW, HRS, HUN, IDIX, KLIC, LM, MMC, MMI, MYGN, NSPH, NI, NTRI, ODP, OPEN, OSG, PEET, PFE, RDN, RGR, QUIK, SIRI, TNB, TRW, VLO, VRSK, WTS, XCO, YRCW.

·         Wednesday, 5/2/12:  Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Challenger Job Report 7:30 AM. Fed’s Tarullo speaks 8 AM.  ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM. Treasury Refunding Announcement 9 AM.  Factory Orders 10:00 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM.  Fed’s Lacker speaks 12:30 PM. Markets are typically bullish about two-thirds of the time moving towards the full moon. Earnings: APKT, AGN, AWK, AGP, BZH, LNG, CLH, CLR, CLX, CTB, CVS, EIX, EE, EPD, EXPD, FARO, GERN, GRMN, HPOL, HSC, HTZ, IACI, ICE, IPI, IRIS, JBT, LGND, LDL, MRO, MSO, MA, MITK, MUR, NKTR, PVA, PCG, PRU, SMSI, SUN, SYMC, TSO, HIG, TWX, VCLK, V, WLT, WTW, WFM, WES, YELP, YOKU, Z.

·         Thursday, 5/3/12: ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM and Draghi Press Conference 8:30 AM. Chain Store Sales data. Productivity and Costs and Jobless Claims 8:30 AM.  Ceridian-UCLA Diesel Indicator 9 AM.  ISM Non-Mfg Index 10 AM.  Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Speak 11 AM.  Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: ACOR, AFFX, ARG, ATK, ALNY, ANR, AIG, AMT, ANTH, APA, AVEO, BEAM, BEBE, CAH, CFN, CBOU, CEC, CF, CKP, CI, DOLE, EP, EPL, FSLR, FLWS, FSYS, GM, GXP, GUID, HCA, HEK, H, IRF, JRCC, KOG, KFT, LXRX, LNKD, LFUS, MTW, MELA, MCHP, NU, NRG, PGN, PWR, SD, SLE, SRE, SQNM, SWN, SFY, SYNM, TRGT, TDC, TRMB, UPL, VIAB, WNR, WTR, XEC, ZAGG.

·         Friday, 5/4/12: Fed’s Williams speaks. Monster Employment Index. Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM- after the Good Friday debacle last month the jobs report is extremely important; did last month start a new leg lower for jobs, or, was it a one-month blip in the data? The jobs numbers must exceed 200K for all months forward to show a true recovery in place taking QE3 off the table. Otherwise, QE3 is coming soon, when CRB (commodities) drops under 280. Traders must place their final bets for the Monday open ahead of the weekend Euro election turmoil. Full Moon occurs this evening. Earnings: AEX, AON, ABR, BPL, CCO, DUK, EL, LNT, MHK, NFG, PPL, PGR, SE, TSRX.

·         Sunday, 5/6/12:  France Runoff Election. Greece elections. Futures markets will react to the elections results and set the tone for Monday’s open.

·         Wednesday, 5/9/12: 10-Year Note Auction 1 PM.

·         Friday, 5/11/12: PPI 8:30 AM. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM.

·         Tuesday, 5/15/12:  CPI and Retail Sales 8:30 AM.

·         Wednesday, 5/16/12:  Housing Starts 8:30 AM. FOMC Minutes 2 PM.