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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
USDJPY Dollar/Yen Inverted Head and Shoulders (H&S) Rising Wedge Negative Divergence
The dollar/yen has been on a wild upwards ride spiking due to BOJ stimulus and monetary actions. The yellow lines show an inverted H&S, that we have watched form over the last few months. The head at 75.5 and neck line at 79.0, targets 82.5. The current print is 82.62. All good things come to an end and the red rising wedge, overbot Williams, and negative divergence should end the upside fun soon. That said, as with all momo moves like AAPL currently, or even the broad markets currently, price has a way of always moving higher due to the juice behind the move. Projection would be for price to top at these levels at 83-ish and pull back for a rest. A move thru the pink channel at 80-83 is an attractive range moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment pruposesonly. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
I am no expert, but I cannot find an instance where the VIX dropped this far below the BB and kept going down the next day. I appears we are in a topping pattern, but WOW, even if the VIX climbs back up today but still closes outside the BB, doesn't that imply there MAY be more downside to VIX and upside to SPX tomorrow? Unless the VIX starts spiking higher today through Thursday, I think Friday's Bradley is going to indicate down for the markets.
Hello Anon, that is a good catch, the VIX daily chart shows the candle dropping thru the lower BB. This is indicating that she will want to spike back upwards, or at least towards the middle BB at 18. Today is probably all about optimism ahead of Chairman Bernanke, traders expect at least a minimum shoutout for QE3, or sterilized QE, or some other gimmick, to occur today.
Therefore, a wild card would be Chairman Bernanke talking up a recovery and not mentioning QE which would cause a market sell off. Seasonality expects the day to be up. Markets are at an inflection point now. The remainder of the week will be very interesting. Markets will react to a catalyst, should one occur. The charts over recent pages on this site show that a top is at hand, but the bulls have continued to surprise, the coming days will tell the story.
I am no expert, but I cannot find an instance where the VIX dropped this far below the BB and kept going down the next day. I appears we are in a topping pattern, but WOW, even if the VIX climbs back up today but still closes outside the BB, doesn't that imply there MAY be more downside to VIX and upside to SPX tomorrow? Unless the VIX starts spiking higher today through Thursday, I think Friday's Bradley is going to indicate down for the markets.
ReplyDeleteHello Anon, that is a good catch, the VIX daily chart shows the candle dropping thru the lower BB. This is indicating that she will want to spike back upwards, or at least towards the middle BB at 18. Today is probably all about optimism ahead of Chairman Bernanke, traders expect at least a minimum shoutout for QE3, or sterilized QE, or some other gimmick, to occur today.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, a wild card would be Chairman Bernanke talking up a recovery and not mentioning QE which would cause a market sell off. Seasonality expects the day to be up. Markets are at an inflection point now. The remainder of the week will be very interesting. Markets will react to a catalyst, should one occur. The charts over recent pages on this site show that a top is at hand, but the bulls have continued to surprise, the coming days will tell the story.