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Friday, March 9, 2012

Keystone's SPXA150R Daily Chart

The SPXA150R is a useful tool for assessing markets.  The sub 35 area is important when bear carnage is ongoing in markets. As seen above, however, we are on the bullish eurphoria side of the chart instead which is above the 80 level.  This chart prints at the end of each day.  Keystone uses the 80, 85 and 90 levels as a gauge for market bullishness. As price moves higher the bullish euphoria is increasing to giddy levels. Over 90 is an ideal signal of when to sdhort markets since the boat is fully loaded to one side with bulls. Thus, as price moves up, between 80-85 would be a bearish signal, then 85-90 would be a strongly bearish signal for markets, then above 90 is an uber bearish signal for markets moving forward. Market tops are virtually guaranteed at 90+ since this indicates that over 90% of the stocks are over their 150-day moving averages, which is unsustainable. The highs over the last couple weeks nearly touched 90. This chart, almost at 90, shows the bullish complacency and euphoria in markets currently.

In Tuesday's big market selloff, the chart fell under 85 but is now in the middle part of the 85-90 zone again. The way to view the action is to see if price moves above 90 or below 85 in the day or days ahead.  If SPXA150R moves above 90, the bullish complacency and euphoria is at fever pitch and a serious market down side is ahead, but for now, as long as the 90 or higher is maintained, the bulls would be okay, walking along the cliff edge.  If SPXA150R drops under 85, that signals that the broad indexes are selling off and the bears are wrestling back control of the markets.

Thus, one outcome is broad market selling in the days ahead and the other is simply putting off the eventual broad maket selling for a few more days. The ideal case for market bulls is to simply move the price sideways from here thru 87-90 slowly inching up and over 90 to try and extend the upside fun as long as possible. In a nutshell, this chart shows that we are much closer to the end rather than the beginning for this broad market move. See which side wins in the days ahead depending on whether price touches the 90 level, or the 85 level, first. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Reference the Market Turn Signals page for more information.

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