Flat day so far. Dollar is flat and AAPL is flat so flat markets not a surprise. CRB, JJC and UTIL are up so the market bears are not feeling any love, bulls remain in control. The Nasdaq is leading the SPX on the upside so this maintains overall broad market buoyancy. Keystone is adding to the SSG this morning.
Note Added 3/21/12 at 1:33 PM: CRB, JJC and UTIL all remaining elevated so this keeps the bulls in biz. The dollar is flat so the action today is no surprise. Bulls want to see a weaker dollar, bears a stronger dollar. After Chairman Bernnake spoke today the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen ever since. The 10-year now at 2.30% well off the near 2.40% level from yesterday, 10 bips lower. The 2.40% resistance level is critical since that is the top rail of the long term sideways channel for $TNX. Reference the chart a few pages back or type it into the search box to see the chart. Thus, yields are down, so prices are up, so that money buying Treasuries has to come from somewhere and that is why stocks are a tinge weaker. AAPL is higher by a buck, so that keeps tech leading the broad markets which maintains overall broad market buoyancy. The financials, XLF, however, are a few pennies red, so the joy for the banks must be fading. SPX is in the projected sideways range highlighted in last evening's missive. The bulls cannot get above 1409.50 so they cannot seal the deal today and the bears cannot get under 1398 so they got nothing, thus, markets wait. Watch SPX 1409.50 and 1398, also CRB 312.50, JJC 48.90 and UTIL 447. Something has to give. Keep your eyes on copper, it is starting to fade. JJC dropping from 49.46 to 49.26 in the last hour. Bears need 36 more pennies which would be the level that Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary algorithm may flip short.
Note Aded 3/21/12 at 1:54 PM: Watch JJC closely, now printing 49.18, only 28 pennies above signaling where broad market selling will accelerate. If JJC falls under 48.90 and the SPX drops under 1398 it is highly likely that Keybot the Quant will flip short. High drama ongoing. JJC now printing 49.16, the bears are pushing, now only 26 cents away, this will severely negatively impact markets if JJC loses 48.90. Note that the 200-day MA is 49.14 and the 50-day MA is 49.15, this is for all the marbles, if this confluence of support fails an attack of 48.90 would be highly likely. Bulls are hanging on by their fingernails at 49.16.
Note Aded 3/21/12 at 3:23 PM: JJC teased the moving average confluence as mentioned above and the bulls knew the seriousness of the situation, so they launched copper higher to stop the trouble. UTIL is flat.
here goes ANOTHER melt up, while you insist the market is "ready" for a big move down!?! In the past have you ever seen your indicators been this wrong for this long? If so, do you really believe the response should be do "double down" on the color that refuses to come up? I ask this question seriously, as I've seen markets continue MUCH higher, even as "overbought" indicators cycled down. I believe we are in one of those periods and your "BOT" has it entirely correct, while any analysis of what should happen will have it entirely wrong!
ReplyDeleteHello Anon, you bring up valid ideas, but the technical indicators as presented on this site should result in the market pull back, they are reliable. You have to keep in mind that this is top-calling (for the short-term trading), a dangerous endeavor and not recommended for the novice traders, it even is typically not recommended for the experienced ones, it is speculation at its most exciting pinnacle. But, yes, the markets appear ready to roll over.
ReplyDeleteIf you follow today's drama, just before 2PM, the algorithm (Keybot) was extremely close to moving to the short side. So you are correct, Keybot is always smarter, but it operates in a slightly different time frame, the robots are smarter than the humans, but the robot is very close to flipping short, hence, we continue along in this funky area right now for markets.
The short-term positions have a few functions in addition to top-calling. They also act as a hedge since if a large lock limit down occurs overnight, perhaps bombs over Iran, the shorts will be great to have.
Sit back and enjoy the ride, it should not be too much longer. But yes, current status is Keybot the Quant continues rocking to the upside but only a hair away from flipping short. The shorter term indicators such as volatilty, Skew, SPXA150R, negative divergence on charts, uber bullish euphoria with no fear at all, and we do not even have to mention the laundry list of fundamental reasons for a pull back, so the idea is that we are directly on the inflection point right now. Sure the top-calling anaylysis may be wrong but Keystone continues along undaunted, we will see if Keybot decides to join Keystone.
If you see Keybot flip short, you will have your answer.
I think it's about to turn, and have been phasing in shorts. I would prepare for one last window dressing push up Thursday, Friday, or Monday...Go Keybot Go! LOL
ReplyDelete