Keystone's Evening Nightcap 3/22/12

Short and sweet tonight so Keystone can get some beauty sleep although unlimited hours of sleep will likely not result in an improvement. Quite a day today, the market bears came to play and sent markets lower with the stronger dollar which slapped copper, then commodities as the day moved along.  Utilities, UTIL, remain above 447 this week so they are currently not breaking down.

For Friday, the bears will be on cruise control as long as JJC stays under 48.80 and CRB stays under 312.40. The CRB is on the bear side only by pennies so focus on that one first thing in the morning. In a nutshell simply watch the dollar since a weaker dollar will bounce JJC and CRB but a stronger dollar will slap them harder.  For the SPX tomorrow, starting at 1393, the bears are favored, and will accelerate the downside if the 1389 handle is lost. Bears would then likely push lower to test the 20-day MA at 1379.55. The bulls need to retrace today's entire move to reignite the upside, highly unlikely, although not impossible, but the bulls will simply focus more attention on creating a weaker dollar so JJC and CRB will run higher and ruin the bearish fun.

Tomorrow we find out if Keystone's algo, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws, or not. For a general idea of what the algorithm is currently scanning, if CRB moves above 312.40, and JJC moves above 48.80, and the SPX moves above 1400, the quant may move back to the bull side, otherwise, the bears are favored.