The SPX closed above the 2011 closing high at 1363.61 which is a feather in the bulls cap. The tech strength this year started the trend in the indexes making new multi-year highs. The XLK, COMP, and then the Dow Industrials last week took out the multi-year highs. The single lonely number target remaining above now is the SPX 1370.58 intraday HOD from 2011.
For the SPX, starting at 1366 on Monday morning, the bulls need to touch 1369, if so, the move to test 1370.58 will occur quickly. Note that a break up thru the 1371 resistance will lead to a move to test 1377, so the 1370.58 is an important line in the sand. The G-20 meeting ongoing as this is written will affect the euro, and thus the dollar inversely, for Monday's trade. Euro up = up markets. Euro down = down markets.
The market bears need to push lower to regain their composure and this is very difficult with the dollar losing steam. Thus, bears need to see a stronger dollar = lower euro = lower equities. If the bears can push back under the 1363.61 number, the downside will accelerate lower. Watch the 10-day MA since this moving average has served as strong support for this bullish rally since mid-December. Any rupture of the 10-day MA to the downside is bear-friendly. A move thru 1365-1367 is sideways action. Note the tight range projection for Monday, thus, it is highly likely that price will commit to one side or the other; watch SPX 1369 to see if the bulls win, or, 1363.61 to see if the bears win.
· 1399
· 1391
· 1389
· 1386
· 1377
· 1371 (5/2/11 Intraday HOD 1370.58)
· 1370
· Friday HOD 1368.92
· 1368
· Friday Close 1365.74
· 1365
· 1364 (4/29/11 Closing High 1363.61)
· Friday LOD 1363.46
· 1363
· 1361
· 1358
· 1356
· 10-day MA 1355.65
· 1351
· 1347
· 1345
· 20-day MA 1344.30
· 1344
· 1341
· 1339
· 1338
· 1337
· 1336
· 1333
· 1332
· 1331
· 1330
· 1329
· 1327
· 1326
· 1323
In this market of CB intervention, the bears always lose. They went hibernating long time ago. Their faces had been ripped off too many times. The past few days, the down moves had no conviction and always come back up. The BTFD crowd is always there to provide the perma bids.
ReplyDeleteHello Curious, Keystone is always interested in hearing all the varying viewpoints, but, does not see the same results you mention. The indexes have not yet pulled back to determine where the dip-buyers are. The markets are simply floating up on the higher euro, lower dollar, and once this relationship reverses, perhaps tonight depending on Mexico City, the process will reverse. Also, AAPL printing new highs day after day keeps tech and the equities markets elevated.
ReplyDeleteIgnoring the early February pop, the SPX has moved in this 30 handle range from 1340-1370 for about 15 trading days. For the dip-buyers, watch 1355-ish, 1344, 1333-ish, and 1326 for starters. But, the markets have to drop first before the bear side can be assessed.
SPX charts, in the shorter time frame, are negatively diverged, so is AAPL. Complacency is high, the low CPC numbers have yet to be resolved. NYMO has room on the downside. These are all bear-friendly. The LTRO this week, Bernanke's testimony and the China PMI will all provide drama.