Here she comes, back up to back test this critical 68 level. Keep an eye on it today, see if it regains 68, or if failure occurs now.
Note Added 2/14/12 at 10:27 AM: The chart above was added to show what to watch today. Below the red line and bears will push markets strongly lower. Above the red line and the market bulls will live to fight another day. Last print 68.12. The broad market bulls are hanging on by 12 pennies.
Note Added 2/14/12 at 10:37 AM: Here we go....hang on. 68.06.....68.05.....68.09....
Note Added 2/14/12 at 10:42 AM: She's teasing........68.09......68.03.....this is it. Nope, she's fickle, back up to 68.06. The market bulls know that they will lose the markets today if 68 fails, they are fighting with all their might to hold the 68 support. Whoa.....68.00, we now find out who wins today, bulls or bears. 67.96, the 68 level ruptures again. Market bears are back in the drivers seat today and in control of the markets. What a drama. Once you see a drastic drop from this 68 level, a collapse, which should occur upon price failure, that will seal the fate of the indexes today. Bulls are not giving up and holding on by their fingernails.
Note Added 2/14/12 at 10:48 AM: She's teasing again, now 68.01. This drama today is like the UTIL yesterday, good ole Keystone's ticker is getting a work out. Come on, decide already, she will decide, up or down, now printing 68.03......68.02. Flip a coin.
Note Added 2/14/12 at 10:55 AM: She lost 68 again, now 67.99.....67.95.....67.96. Can the market bears finally intiate a large sell off? The bears are holding it in their hands now. There you go, failure. Now printing 67.77, if bearish, start pushing, you got her now. Now printing a lower low taking out the low from a half hour ago at 67.65. Market bears are in biz. Now printing 67.48. Expect a large down day, Keystone's algorithm (the market call in the left margin, keybot the Quant) may finally turn bearish today. Now printing 67.39, bears are rockin'.
Note Added 2/14/12 at 11:45 AM: Just when the bulls have placed both feet in the casket, instead, they jump back to life, and the ratio moves back above 68 at 11:35 AM. Lots of drama today, simply watch it play out, bears win below 68, bulls above. Last print 68.09.
Note Added 2/14/12 at 2:07 PM: SPX:VIX ratio failed thru 68 at 12:30 PM, now printing 66.30 so firmly in the bear camp and indicating that a large down day is on tap today.
Note Added 2/14/12 at 6:17 PM: The SPX:VIX ratio came back to life with ten minutes to go in the trading day, jumping from 67 to 68 in one minute's time. Thus, the large down day was nullified and the market bulls are in control again. Watch tomorrow to see if the bears push the ratio back under 68 again to signal a large down day on tap. The saga continues.
Given the action around SPX:VIX today, and some persuasive arguments at Zero Hedge and elsewhere that the Greeks may not get their bailout tomorrow, can you please post some lower S/R levels again? Many thanks.
ReplyDeleteHello Weaver. Sure, the 1344 support held so far today. Losing 1343 would be very bearish. SPX support below is;
ReplyDelete1344 strong support
1343.02 is the 10-day MA
1343 (it is very bearish if lost today)
1341
1339
1337 strong support
1333 strong support
1331 strong support
1329.29 is the 20-day MA
1329 strong support
1326
given the STRENGTH of this bull run since the Oct lows, could you give us your insights into previous markets when the $bpspx, $spxa50r and the other $ indicators provided correction numbers that did NOT produce a significant retracement in the markets?
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me, despite the "overbought" nature of this market, the overbought indicators are relieving the pressure individually while the others continue to act in concert to pressure the markets higher. For ex. the utes are in bearish mode, without ANY downside market action.
So, IF the utes turn up, could the $bpspx then turn lower, with the UTES providing upside market action with NO corresponding downside provided by the $bpspx?
Thanks for all you do!
Hello Anon, it looks like in a nutshell you are curious about the reliability of the various indicators, BPSPX, SPXA150R, UTIL, SPX:VIX and so forth. As far as direction, they will all end up agreeing for the most part, that is what is tricky now, the markets are in the midst of topping and rolling over so lots of cross currents occur.
ReplyDeleteTime frames are always key to consider for any call made in the markets. For example, Keystone may be short while day trading but have a position that is long projecting a couple weeks out and then perhaps hold a short position over the longer term, and holding these all at the same time.
For the utilities, simply give that time, especially the way the 451.17 was defended yesterday, and today. That actually gives the market bears further street cred. The utes are now working on their third consecutive weekly downtrend week, this is after multi-months of upside. Typically this ominous tone set by the utes forecasts broad index trouble from zero to say 8 weeks time, so we are only in the third week. But the utes will definitely create market weakness as it has, the weakness last Friday can be attributed in part to the utes signaling a sickness coming over the markets.
On the BPSPX, SPXA150R and SPX:VIX indicators, note that the S&P 500 is part of all three so they will move together. The SPX:VIX would be a quicker acting indicator to forecast markets, then BPSPX works in a bit longer timeframe, then SPXA150R is probably the slowest of the three.
Thus, you are correct that, for example, today, the SPX:VIX collapsed under 68 signaling bearishness ahead. BPSPX may not reverse the six percnetage points over the coming days, and SPXA150R may not fall under 85, both staying on the bull side. Then after a couple few day sell off, perhaps the SPX:VIX ratio recovers above 68, then all three would be bullish again, so sure, that can happen.
Also, the SPX:VIX may now stay under 68 for the next month or more, and what you will see is the BPSPX rolling over in the days ahead, then likely seeing the SPXA150R fall back down thru the 85 level, then 80 level, and lower, then all three would be in the bear camp dragging markets lower.
A lot about these and other indicators such as CPC and NYAD, NYHL, TRIN and so forth, have a lot to do with feel and experience and the best way you get that is simply routinely checking these charts daily and getting to feel their moves, like learning to play a guitar or other instrument, practice each day and after a few months the indicators and your experience yourself will probably answer the original question.
Thus, for today UTIL and SPX:VIX are in the bear camp. You have to wait for the closing print to receive today's BPSPX and SPXA150R prints. CPC has signaled that we are at a significant market top the last couple weeks. The TRIN is only 1.07 only a smidge on the bear side where a lot higher number like 2 or higher wuld be expected with todays weakness creeping in. The NYAD today only printed a low of -1500 not yet near a low like -2000 or lower that would show traders throwing out stocks due to worry and panic. Thus, the selling is orderly and favors the market bears. Also, tech was finally leading to the downside, but over the last hour, those bulls wrestled back tech, due to AAPL buoyancy, and now the Nasdaq is down -0.42% and the SPX is down -0.48%, so this may place some brakes on todays down move.