Keystone's Morning Wake Up 2/2/12

Punxsutawney Phil, the groundog weather forecaster from this neck of the woods, the beautiful Laurel Mountains of Pennsylvania, sees his shadow a short time ago progosticating six more weeks of winter.  So Phil predicts colder weather on the way. Perhaps Keystone's natty gas long position will work out afterall. No word as to whether Phil seeing his shadow equates to six more weeks of bullishness, however.

The bull's enjoyed another party day yesterday but failed to move the UTIL above 453. This is the only way that bullish market strength can be gained. The market bears are solidly in the game as long as UTIL does not move above 453, specifically 452.66.

The most important thing to watch today is commodities, the CRB Index. If CRB drops under 309.50, Keystone's algorithm, Keybot the Quant, will likely flip to the short side possibly ending the long six week market rally.

For the SPX today starting at 1324, the market bulls need to push above 1330.50 to ignite an upside market acceleration. The market bears need to drop the SPX under 1313, that would be an unlucky number, and the large block sellers will enter the markets accelerating a move south. A move thru 1314-1329 is sideways action.