Lots of drama today. UTIL cannot make it's mind up about 452.91. The SPX fell to within 12 cents of signaling accelerated selling at 1358, only to bounce. Volatility, the VIX, is trying to maintain the 20-day MA at 18.72. Above 18.72 and the market bears will be happy. If volatility drifts lower again, bears will be happy.
AAPL is moving sideways into and thru a symmetrical triangle from late yesterday thru now. This sets up a potentilally large spike move higher, or collapse lower, on the door step. Last evening's chart would hint at a move lower but as this is typed, the move is a spike upwards, from 511.50 to 513.50. Thus, today's dramatics should continue along. Tech is leading the broad markets lower, for three days now, which is bearish for markets. The euro, however, remains buoyant, perhaps due to a gluttony of short players in the euro now, and with the euro buoyant, the dollar has difficulty moving up, since they typically move inverse to each other.
UTIL 452.91 and SPX 1358 are telling the story today. AAPL now printing 514, that symmetrical triangle shot it higher. UTIL 452.02 so market bears are winning. SPX 1360.34 continuing along sideways today. VIX 18.57 now under the 20-day MA so the market bulls are winning this fight. Markets are in a sideways funk today. UTIL now a point under 452.91 so this is a big feather in the bears cap.
Note Added 2/22/12 at 12:32 PM: UTIL gave up the ghost after its earlier attacks of 452.91 so the market bears will benefit. The SPX broke down thru 1358 which ushered in additional negativity. SPX 1354, 1351, 1347, 1345 and 1344 which is strong support, are downside targets. VIX continues today's fight for the 20-day MA at 18.72 with the bull's winning at 18.59. The bears are having difficulty with downside market mojo because the volatilty has not launched yet. If VIX jumps up and over 18.72 again, the market selling will noticeably increase. Otherwise, the bulls are limiting the downside. Tech continues to lead the markets lower today which is a strong force; as trading continues this may have a fatigue effect on the bulls.
Note Added 2/22/12 at 1:03 PM: UTIL coming back up for another look at 452.91, the bulls are not giving up. VIX 18.48, moving lower, that is bull friendly. Markets meandering sideways. Interestingly, look at an AAPL minute chart, the sideways triangle this morning resolved with an upside spike just before 11 AM. Now AAPL has morphed into another sideways symmetrical triangle and has to make a decision again now--either big spike skyward, or, a collapse in price lower.
Note Added 2/22/12 at 1:12 PM: AAPL sneaking out above the triangle.....513.06.....but watch, sometimes the initial move out of the triangle is a fake-out move and price will do a hard reverse. But UTIL jumps above 452.91 the bulls are on the run higher again. The saga continues. Neither side wants to give up and neither side wants the ball. AAPL moving sideways.
Note Added 2/22/12 at 1:17 PM: AAPL launch out of the triangle, 514.50, the market bulls have juice. UTIL 453 and VIX at 18.12 now. The bulls are pushing now and gaining ground.
KS, is KBtheQ still long? do you know at what price level it will go short again?
ReplyDeleteHello Arnie, for Keybot it is a little more complicated than that, there is always a confluence of different items such as price levels, sector levels, indicators, that all line up to create a move. For today, Keybot would have likely triggered short once the SPX lost 1358 a short time ago, but, since copper remains elevated, that would not permit such a move. Thus, Keybot idles along on the long side.
ReplyDeleteThe euro is staying buoyant since Greece had a positive vote a short time ago and this bouyed the euro, thus, it is harder for the dollar to gain strength. The dollar moving up will take copper and commodities down and if you see this weakness appear, Keybot will want to go short.
All you can do is wait and see, Keybot has a mind of its own. UTIL giving up the fight for 452.91 today is perceived to be very bearish by the algorithm so that is another feather in the bears cap. The beat goes on. Lots of drama.
thanks for the info!! I was under the (wrong) impression that KeyBot was only based on SPX, but it's much more complicated than that. Which is really good, since one market ain't not all markets! I am still 100% cash; too much drama indeed (for me)
ReplyDeleteHello Arnie, nope, Keybot is an algorithm based on lots of tools Keystone has tested over the years, Keybot took over ten years to develop. Keystone is shorting various sectors as shown on this site here, in essence, trying to pick the top and catch the roll over. If Keybot would cooperate and trigger the short side that would give the bears street cred and make the market move lower highly likely. Bulls keep fighting back, copper now green, VIX driftin glower, and UTIL has regained 452.91, favoring bulls.
ReplyDeleteKS, do you have a portfolio page that we can see what you are shorting? Thank you.
ReplyDeletewow, going for lunch and just checked AAPL: 3-5point drop in 4min... not looking healthy imho
ReplyDeleteHello Alex, it is too much effort for me to post all the trades and various adds; Keystone has lots of content to place on the site but cannot keep up the way it is. Keystone likes to trade ETF's; current positions are shorting silver, shorting retail sector, shorting housing sector, shorting energy, shorting small caps and broad markets. Did have a short on semiconductors via SSG but too,k profits on that today and cycled that dough into more ZSL which is shorting silver. These are dangerous ETF's where traders typiclaly lose their money.
ReplyDeleteSo Keystone will continue to mention trades as they unfold. The charts posted here typically depict Keystone's tardes so simply watch to see what charts are posted, ERY and TZA were posted the last few days, two more dangeroud ETF's where traders lose their money.
Keybot the Quant's position on the markets is shown in the top left margin. The algo follows a smoother path thru the year so it will not catch the tops exactly nor will it catch the bottoms exactly but it serves as a great gauge of current broad market conditions. We are at a n odd time now since it appears to be a potential market inflection point, thus, Keybot may flip short at any time. But, in a nutshell, traders generally want to be moving in the same direction as Keybot, unless at an inflection point like now where short trades can be tried to call the market top (speculation). If a trader is short or long and it is in conflict with Keybot, that trader should be worried. If the trade is placed in the same direction as Keybot, then the risk-reward is in this traders favor.
Hello Arnie, yep, but AAPL finished flat printing a doji candle on the daily chart, this indicates a trend change so wait to see if price follows thru lower tomorrow. Would not be surprising to see price pop, the negative divergence would remain in place so it won't be going anywere, a pop to 520 or higher in fact would be an inticing short entry. The other result is price simply falls from here. If AAPL drops, the SPX will drop perhaps losing that 1355 level as shown in the SPX 30-minute chart posted tonight.