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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

European Bond Yields 2/22/12

Greece is up over 34% now but the number has been ridiculous for quite a while. The resolution yesterday is met with a yawn by markets.  Greece festers each passing day. The Greek citizens have the right idea, however, simply pass the lotion and enjoy another day in the Mediterranean sun.

Portugal is a big focus now, the 10-year yield bounced 13 basis points since this time yesterday, now at 12.38%. The Portugal yield curve is inverted from the 5's thru the 30's but the 2-year at 13.63% remains lower than the 5-year at 15.32%. Nonetheless, it is obvious that Portugal has problems and is headed for or already in recession. Hungary is the beach ball that keeps bouncing up every time it is pushed under water, jumping 11 bips since yesterday, back up towards 8.50%, but Hungary is rarely mentioned in the news. Perhaps a European reader on the site here may comment on what they see in Hungary.

10-Year Yields:
Greece 34.06%
Portugal 12.38%
Hungary 8.49%
Italy 5.50%
Spain 5.12%
Belgium 3.62%
France 2.98%
Netherlands 2.42%
U.K. 2.17%
U.S. 2.06%
Germany 1.95%

Italy 10-year is up 8 bips since yesterday back to the 8.50% level. All is quiet with the remainder of the yields. The market crack addicts are all salivating over the coming LTRO announcement next week (2/29/12) which should provide a new fix. The question is how much the program will offer the next time around. Portugal and Hungary continue to appear under pressure moving forward.

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