UPS Weekly Chart 20 and 50 MA Cross Secular Bull Market

Keystone's UPS Secular Signal uses the 20 and 50 week MA crosses to forecast secular bull markets versus secular bear markets. Today the broad markets signal a return to a Secular Bull Market for this indicator. As the 2009 QE1 rally continued along, this UPS signal forecasted a secular bull market in July 2009; it signaled the all clear and that bullish fun would continue a long time.  The bull rally did continue along for two years after that until the August 2011 waterfall crash.

The secular bear market began in August 2011 and ended, as of today. Before reading too much into the move, consider that in 2009 the bull market was in its infancy and the indicators were in a long and strong profile showing plenty of room for further upside.  The weakness that began early 2011 was ushered in by the red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence across all indicators shown by the red lines.  This created the malaise and spank down during 2011 leading to the August crash.

Since the Fall, UPS is now in a mini rising wedge again which is bearish, and overbot stochastics, also bearish.  In the one year time frame the purple lines clearly show negative divergence which is not encouraging for the weeks and months ahead.  However, the green lines for the indicators from November thru present, show a long and strong profile. Therefore, price should meander sideways as it tops off, placing another matching or higher high at some point forward, which then should result in negative divergence for the shorter term three month period as well as hte one year period creating the conditions for price to roll over again.

Thus, the secular bulls are happy tonight and will enjoy a secular bullish trend as long as the 20 MA is above the 50 MA. See the Secular Signal page on this site for further information.  Monitor this cross closely here on out.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1/31/12 at 7:46 AM:  UPS reports earnings beating the bottom line but falling short with top line revenue.  Guidance is in line although UPS forecasts 'mixed growth' ahead.