SPX S/R Week of 1/23/12

Price is currently fighting to move thru the SPX resistance cluster at 1314-1318. Moving above 1318 and 1319 would be a major bullish development, should it occur, and would pave the way to 1326.  The year started at 1258 with the SPX now gaining 57 points in 13 sessions, or 4.5% this year thus far, a phenomenal 4.4 S&P points per trading day!  The bulk of the move is due to the anticipated easing by China which boosted copper, commodities and equities.

For the SPX for Monday, if the futures are green, even by only pennies, the bulls will continue the upside party starting the week with another upside acceleration.  The market bears need red futures at all costs to stop the bleeding and prevent another significant jump at the opening bell.  If the bears can keep the futures red and push the SPX under 1309 after the open, six points lower, the downside move will accelerate as large block sellers will step in to take profits and sell the markets lower. A tight move thru 1310-1314 is sideways action but not expected.

The key for Monday is whether or not the Sunday overnight futures are red or green and which side of SPX 1315 or 1309 price will break out. If up, continue to gauge if the bulls can chomp thru the 1314-1318 resistance gauntlet, or not. If down, the loss of 1309 will likely send the SPX lower to test 1300 in short order. Market bears will not receive negative momo unless the SPX 1283 level gives way. Bulls will remain in biz if the SPX stays above 1283, especially over the next seven trading days, the month-end print on Tuesday, 1/31/12, in relation to 1283, is extremely important.

·         1327

·         1326

·         1323

·         1321

·         1320

·         1319

·         1318

·         1316

·         Friday HOD and Close 1315.38

·         1315

·         1314

·         1312

·         Friday LOD 1309.17

·         1309

·         1308

·         1307

·         1305

·         1300

·         1298

·         1296

·         10-day MA 1295.93

·         1295

·         1293 (10/27/11)

·         1292

·         1289

·         1287

·         1286

·         1285

·         12-month MA 1283.19 (One of Keystone’s Major Secular Signals)

·         1281

·         20-day MA 1279.67

·         1278

·         1277

·         1275

·         10-month MA 1274.53

·         1272

·         1270

·         1268

·         50-week MA 1267.83

·         1267

·         1265

·         1261

·         1260

·         1258 (1257.64 start of 2011; 1257.60 start of 2012)

·         200-day MA 1257.43

·         1257 (3/16/11)

·         1255

·         1253

·         1252 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk)

·         1249 (LOD 3/16/11; failure at this level 8/4/11)

·         50-day MA 1248.55

·         1247

·         1244