Keystone's Morning Wake Up 11-11-11

The once in every 100 years day is here; 11-11-11, but, more importantly, Veterans Day. Thank you to all the vets out there. Late morning will be interesting at 11:11 AM EST on 11/11/11, if only for amusement sake.  A market inflection point actually occurs one hour before that at 10 AM when University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is released.

Futures point to a strong start today.  The utilities, retail and semiconductor sectors are supporting the markets currently. Keystone's algo constantly scrolls thru all the market sectors and pin points the sectors directly influencing markets in real time. For today, the financials are key.  XLF closed under 13 which helps the market bear case but with a strong up on tap at the open, XLF is currently showing a pop to 13.07 which will help bolster the market bull move.  If XLF maintains the 13 level or higher today, that will produce a sideways to sideways up posture for markets all day long. If XLF stays under 13, that shows weakening markets despite any pop that occurs in the early going.  Semi's look fine to begin the day but keep an eye on SOX 374.65 if the markets turn south and XLF is under 13. The semiconductors would be the next sector to capitulate to the bear side if markets move south.

For the SPX today, starting at 1240, if the market bulls push upwards above 1246, the large block buyers will enter in force and the indexes in general will move higher in short order. So watch to see if the opening pop is able to attain and hold 1246+.  The market bears need to prevent any move to 1246 and at the same time push lower to move the SPX under 1228. If 1227 starts to print the selling will accelerate in the indexes. A move thru 1229-1245 is sideways slop.

The S&P futures are up 1.00% at this writing while the Nasdaq is up 0.91%. Thus, with the Nas lagging slightly, this says the up move is not anticipated to be that strong today.  DIS  earnings last evening has everyone in a happy mood; DIS is up a point and one-half pre-market, 4%.  DIS is a component of the Dirty 30 so as a rule of thumb multiply the individual point moves on any Dow component by 8 to see the overall affect on the Dow Industrials index.  Thus, 1.5 x 8 = 12 so DIS will help elevate the Dow by 12 points today. Keep an eye on XLF 13, SOX 374.65, SPX:VIX 35 and SPX 1246/1227; these compadres dictate broad market direction today.

Note Added 11/11/11 at 10:28 AM:  XLF jumped above 13, now printing 13.21. The SPX immediately took out 1247 so the upside accelerated.  Forgot to mention voaltility as well. VIX dropped under 30.45 placing another large feather in the bulls cap.  The higher financials and lower volatility, and stronger semi's, are providing the rocket fuel for today's move. The Nasdaq is not up quite as much as the S&P so a flat move from here may be in order.  XLF 13.00 and VIX 30.45 is all you need to watch today, both are bullish now, and if either change, that will usher in bearishness but all looks fine currently.  Keystone's algorithm flipped to the long side at the open at SPX 1251.