USD US Dollar Weekly Chart

Dollar weekly chart shows the falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence (blue lines) that created the bounce in late April--exactly when the last trader placed the last nail in the buck's coffin. The fly in the ointment was that blue circle for the RSI, it printed an ever-so-slightly lower low which demands that price come back down for a mathing or lower low. This has not happened but the sideways action May thru September did a lot to burn off this RSI demand. The H&S (red lines) should be considered for the months ahead, a rupture of the 81 neckline would target 88-89 for 2012, which would be surprising to 90% of the traders. The spank down from 79-ish a month ago was due to the 200 week MA resistance (not shown).

Focusing on the recent action, the purple line shows the importance of the 76-ish support/resistance, which price is now testing. Note how this level is bookened by the 10 EMA above and 20 MA below, the break out of these MA's will tell a lot. The black lines show how the behavior moving forward is taking on a sideways vibe, the 76 level serving as a midpoint for a sideways symmetrical triangle now in progress. The green lines for the indicators show a long and strong profile so a move up to test the neck line at 81 is definitely in play. The ADX black line is moving sideways, reinforcing the sideways triangle vibe, at 22 now, it is showing that there is no real trend to the dollar over the last six months, not tipping its hand for the bulls or the bears.

Watch the 50% levels for RSI and stochastics since they will provide early hints of direction moving forward. A gap fill is needed at 75-ish before the ascent begins again. Projection is for a bounce to occur for the dollar and a move up to 81 for the weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.