Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time. The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.
Summary for the New Trading Week Ahead:
The markets continue to enjoy the Merkozy happy talk buoyancy; the S&P 500 is up the last three weeks and the Dow Industrials is up the last four weeks in a row. On Thursday, when the markets were rolling over, the Fed saved the day with the quantitative easing talk, reversing and catapulting the markets upwards thru Friday.
Markets remain at the mercy of the European crisis. EU Summit meeting this weekend needs to at least provide an outline and it will be given a free pass. Any clarity will be market friendly to keep the party going. Wednesday is the deliverable day for the EU leaders and further concrete details will be required. The markets will simply react accordingly. Merkozy stated that they will have a final plan before 11/3/11, eleven days or less so they need to show the markets the pony they promised. Euro higher=U.S. equities higher. But any stumble from Europe results in lower euro; euro down=U.S. equities down.
We are in Keystone’s Eclipse window, now thru mid-November, where a large potential market selling event may occur, a la August. It is something not to bank on, but rather something to be aware of as an underlying background current in the markets. The other eclipse windows this year all resulted in large market sell offs. In addition, a Bradley turn window is now open with this week into next week targeted as a market turn. Another indicator in this genre of forecasting is the new moon on Wednesday which provides a better than 50/50 chance for weak markets. Watch for news from Moody’s concerning any potential downgrade of U.S. debt. Listen for any downgrades in general from the rating agencies, especially European banks and countries.
Earnings galore this week again, mid week is packed full, lots of industries to provide a great cross section for the global economy. CAT is an important proxy for China. UPS is an important proxy for the global economy and is one of Keystone’s Secular Signals (see the Secular Turn page on this site). Gold miners such as AEM, GG and NEM will be interesting as well.
On the economic data front, watch the Fed manufacturing data, this will either provide some subtle market buoyancy, or, subtle market weakness, depending on how it goes and the first release is Monday with the Chicago Index. Monday’s tone will be set by the EU Summit, CAT earnings and the Chicago Fed data. Lots of housing data this week as well with various releases so watch the housing sector closely. Case-Shiller hits Tuesday morning. Consumer Confidence at 10 AM Tuesday will be a market pivot point. Wednesday is the big day where further concrete details are needed from the EU summit. On Thursday, GDP and Jobless Claims are released before the open. The Fed manufacturing data releases continue. On Friday, Fed favorite Personal Outlays data is released then watch Consumer Sentiment minutes before 10 AM since this will be a market pivot point.
Gold, copper and commodities received relief recently and the CRB is back above 300. Note how gold is starting to trade more in line with the other commodities now, see if that relationship holds. The overall asset relationship currently is euro down=dollar up=commodities down=equities down=gold down=treasury price up yield down, or, the visa versa, euro up=dollar down=commodities up=equities up=gold up=treasury price down yield up which has been the trend the last two or three weeks during this market buoyancy. This is why Europe is so key; each move of the euro will set off one of these asset relationships to run, any given day, or intraday.
Continue to watch for a potential ETF event this year, GLD and SLV remain suspects. Copper and commodities are expected to resume their downtrend as the weeks continue along. This will move the economy deeper into deflation which will cause Chairman Bernanke to announce QE3.
Yen intervention by the BOJ remains highly likely now that the dollar/yen has dropped a touch under the critical 76.50 level. Dollar/yen buoyancy should relate to dollar buoyancy, which may usher in some market weakness. Continue to watch for the dollar to rise as the weeks move along. A rise in the dollar will place further pressure on oil, gold, silver and other commodities.
Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:
· Monday, 10/24/11: Markets remain at the mercy of Europe news moving forward. EU Summit over the weekend should deliver an outline of a plan; then deliver the concrete details on Wednesday. If the EU weekend meeting results are acceptable, markets will remain buoyant, if the meeting is difficult and mixed messages result, the markets will sell off. The meetings will continue on Wednesday. Markets are now in Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator zone, where now thru mid November is targeted as a large potential market selling area. A new Bradley turn window is open for the days ahead; watch now thru 11/4/11 for a market turn, especially 10/25/11 thru 11/2/11; the actual turn date is 10/28/11. Watch for continued news of downgrades of banks and countries, a market negative. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM. Fisher speaks 9 AM. 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions. Earnings: AMGN, CAT (china proxy), ETN, IDCC, KMB, MAS, NFLX, NLY, PCL, UIS, TXN, VECO, VFC.
· Tuesday, 10/25/11: Case-Shiller 9 AM. House Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Consumer Confidence 10 AM. 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM. 2-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings: AKS, AMZN, BYD, CBI, CIT, CCI, CMI, DAL, DD, EXM, ESRX, IRBT, LXK, MMM, NBR, NOV, ODP, PNRA, BTU, RSH, RRC, RF, TLAB, UA, UPS (one of Keystone’s Secular Signals), X, WAT, XRX.
· Wednesday, 10/26/11: New Moon. The EU Summit meeting from the weekend continues today and more concrete details need provided. If the details provide clarity and make sense, the markets will rally. If the meeting hits a snag and the plan is not coming together, the markets will sell off. Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM. New Home Sales 10 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 5-Year note Auction 1 PM. Earnings: AEM, AFL, AKAM, ATI, AFAM, BMC, BA, COG, DOLE, F, GG, GMCR, HES, ITRI, LMT, MHS, SKS, S, V.
· Thursday, 10/27/11: GDP, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Pending Home Sales 10 AM. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11 AM. 7-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM. Earnings: AET, MO, BIDU, AVP, BMI, CELG, CERN, CL, CNX, CROX, DECK, DRIV, ERTS, FLS, GTLS, HERO, IP, KBR, LM, MET, PG, PHM, QTM, RTN, RS, VRTX, WM, ZHM, XOM.
· Friday, 10/28/11: Employment Cost Index and Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM. Earnings: AXL, AON, ACI, BIIB, CEG, CVX, D, MRK, NEM, GT, WY, WHR.
Key Dates and Times for the Month Ahead:
· Tuesday and Wednesday, 11/1/11 and 11/2/11: FOMC rate decision and meeting. Note how the meeting coincides with Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator.
· Thursday, 11/3/11: ECB Rate decision, surely rates will be cut to reverse Trichet’s mistakes this year, if not already lowered in the interim.
· Thursday and Friday, 11/3/11 and 11/4/11: Kick the “Cannes” meeting with the Merkozy final plan due.
· Sunday, 11/13/11: Troika decision.
· Wednesday, 11/23/11: Deficit Commission deadline. The Congress debates on debt reduction. This will be in the news more and more as the days more along.
· Thursday, 12/8/11: ECB Meeting and rate decision.
· Tuesday, 12/13/11: FOMC Meeting and rate decision.
· Friday, 12/23/11: Congress debt vote.
Major Market Movers for the Weeks, Months and Years Ahead:
· Earnings
· Corporate Bankruptcies
· Options Expiration (OpEx)
· Quantitative Easing (QE3)
· FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Rate Decisions and Policy
· Rating Agency Downgrades
· U.S. Presidential Election
· Congress In or Out of Session
· Europe Debt Crisis
· ECB (European Central Bank) Rate Decisions and Policy
· Ongoing Wars
· Continuing Geopolitical Events
· Occupy Wall Street Global Protests
· State and Muni Crisis; Union Busting
· College/Student Debt Bubble
· China Property Bubble and China Contagion
· PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) Rate Decisions and Policy
· China New Premier Selection
· Emerging Market Rate Decisions and Policy
· BOJ (Bank of Japan) Rate Decisions and Policy
· Government Secured Enterprises (GSE’s) Impact
· Oil Economic Impact
· Mother Nature
· Keystone’s Eclipse Selloff Areas
· Bradley Turn Dates
· Solar Flares, New and Full Moons
Details for the Major Market Movers:
· Earnings: Earnings are in full swing now, better than many expected, about 75% beating estimates. Thus, going into the new week with another huge barrage or earnings, the market bulls are winning the earnings battle so far.
· Corporate Bankruptcies: Keystone looks for a high number of company bankruptcies in 2012 and 2013. The politicians cannot make a difference; they will only create deeper harm. In a nutshell, there is no demand for products and services. The deleveraging must continue and it will result in many companies going belly-up over the next couple years. Market negative over the intermediate and longer term.
· Options Expiration (OpEx): Third Friday each month. Upcoming dates 11/18/11, 12/16/11. Typically an up market move occurs from Tuesday thru Wednesday of OpEx week if you get your timing correct. Markets typically are opposite on the following Monday morning from the direction they closed on OpEx Friday.
· Quantitative Easing (QE3): Quantitative easing two (QE2) ended 6/30/11. Tentative projection for QE3 announcement is November-December. Fed hinted that more quantitative easing is coming on 10/20/11 and 10/21/11 which spiked the markets skyward. The Fed announced Operation Twist and that resulted in a market selloff. Deflation must raise its ugly face before Bernanke is forced to announce QE3. Keystone’s Inflation Deflation Indicator is moving from Neutral to Disinflation to Deflation, then back again, over the last couple weeks. Use the CRB as a general guide, under 300 is disinflationary and under 290 deeper into deflation and under 270 will probably prompt Bernanke to announce QE3. When Deflation appears in the weeks ahead, perhaps the first global quantitative easing program for planet Earth will commence, the Fed joining forces with other countries to coordinate their efforts in trying to save a banking system already lost. Quantitative easing will bounce markets but it is only a matter of time before the rally peters out, just as QE1 did in April 2010 after 13 months and QE2 did in April 2011 after 8 months. QE3 future rally will last 3 to 5 months?
· FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Rate Decisions and Policy: 11/1/11-11/2/11 (note this coincides with Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator date); 12/13/11. Fed announced that the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) will remain in place until mid-2013. Operation Twist is ongoing. QE3 announcement is anticipated for the November-December time frame. Deflation needs to occur first.
· Rating Agency Downgrades: S&P announces a downgrade of U.S. debt from AAA to AA+. Moody’s said a couple months ago they would comment on U.S. debt in mid-October. Downgrade talk is a market negative and if any additional downgrade occurs from any of the three rating agencies, the equities markets will sell off large. Downgrades of any banks or countries are a market negative. Continue to watch for European downgrades.
· U.S. Presidential Election: Markets will ebb and flow as the politicians fight it out, one side is just as bad as the other; demopublicans and republocrats. The market effects are more of a 2012 story. Keystone will comment on the Presidential cycle as time moves along.
· Congress In or Out of Session: Market bullish when not in session, market bearish when in session. Further budgets fights will continue into November working towards the November deadline of 11/23/11. Congress debt vote is 12/23/11. Each negative sound bite from the President and Congress will negatively impact the broad markets. Perhaps the childish bickering will end and the debt reduction decisions will be made, but, it is easier to picture the same ending as last year with holiday-eve votes and market turmoil.
· Europe Debt Crisis: The Europe news flow is the main driver of the markets now. EU Summit today and on Wednesday; they better deliver a pony. The five little piggies (PIIGS) are Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Merkel and Sarkozy, Merkozy, promise a solution by 11/3/11. Greece on the verge of default with contagion now a major worry. Italy and Spain are the major worries. Moody’s has downgraded Italy and Spain debt. Italy is the third largest debtor nation in the World, only trailing the U.S. and Japan. Greece paper probably worth 30 cents on the dollar, Ireland 50 cents, Portugal 85 cents but no one knows for sure. The Spain and U.K. high unemployment for young people is a major concern, leading to riots, and now the Occupy Wall Street protests that have gone global. Italy and Spain are too big to fail, too big to bail. Rich Uncle China needs to save the day but they appear hesitant. Markets have rallied over the last week since Merkozy promised a solution, thus, they better deliver a pony since they promised one. Weaker euro=stronger dollar=weaker commodities=weaker U.S. equities, and visa versa. The last two weeks has been stronger euro=weaker dollar=stronger commodities=stronger U.S. equities.
· ECB European Central Bank) Rate Decisions and Policy: ECB announces next rate decision 11/3/11, cuts are coming, 12/8/11, 1/12/12. Past decisions are no hike 9/8/11, no hike 8/4/11, 25 bip hike 7/7/11, no hike 6/9/11, no hike 5/5/11 and the 25 bip hike on 4/7/11 that began Trichet’s mistake this year, just like July 2008 when he raised at the peak in the commodities market, exactly the wrong time. Trichet is now replaced with Draghi who has to undo this year’s rate cuts. Rate cut will occur on the 11/3/11 meeting if not sooner. The euro buoyancy in 2011 was caused by Trichet’s hawkish talk, now that will reverse, thus, euro down=dollar up=equities down. Equities move in the same direction as the euro.
· Ongoing Wars: Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. Colonel Gaddafi is dead, the oil flow has been coming back anyways. Wars and M.E. problems will always provide a bid underneath oil, gold and silver. As tensions ease, the premium in price works itself out.
· Continuing Geopolitical Events: Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen, N. Korea: Dollar bullish and equity bearish. Tensions provide a premium to oil, gold and silver prices with news flow immediately impacting prices. Bahrain is the big worry since unrest will impact oil supply. Yemen is important since it is a southern Saudi border. Al-Awlaki’s death should add to stabilization in the area in the long term. Yemen protestors are killed with live ammunition on 10/15/11. Syria and Yemen are the major current concerns. News flow impacts commodities in real time. Any bad news=higher oil, gold and silver prices, or, visa versa.
· Occupy Wall Street Global Protests: The protests began in New York on 9/17/11. No impact to markets, yet, but it shows the underlying dissatisfaction that World citizens have for banksters, bailouts, high unemployment, high student debt, high taxes and many other issues. The movement is now global with protestors marching on GS offices in Milan on 10/14/11. The first violence occurring in Rome on 10/15/11 with rock throwing, window smashing and vehicles set on fire. Authorities respond with water cannons and tear gas. The banksters created the housing bubble with MBS (mortgage-backed securities) and CDO’s (collateralized debt obligations), fancy derivatives and easy credit. Citizens are at fault as well showing no financial restraint, jumping into debt during the late 1990’s and 2000’s. The housing bubble collapse ushers in a permanent class of unemployed and underemployed people that will take years to resolve, which fosters class warfare. The Occupy movement has no leaders or unified message currently and is more focused in showing that they can simply organize and present a unified front against government and corporate greed. Protest signs read, “Banks got bailed out, we got sold out.” The protestors now have their own newspaper, “The Occupy Wall Street Journal.” 99% is a key theme, as in the 99% that suffer versus the 1% banksters and corporate big wigs that live on easy street. The 1% were the major cause of the trouble but they enjoy the good life with no ramifications for the misery caused. The Occupy movement protests capitalism but the quandary is that what occurred with bank bailouts is not capitalism and the U.S. is not as capitalistic as people think. The current policy is for the government to bail out corporations in trouble such as financial institutions and auto companies, non-capitalism actions, which only serve to foster moral hazard.
· State and Muni Crisis; Union Busting: Muni’s should experience pain first. Muni’s rely on State funds. The new State fiscal budgets are underway now. State funding of local municipality projects will be impacted. Muni and State layoffs increasing. Colleges relied on State funds and tuition increases are already hitting cash-strapped students. Lingering unemployment lessens government tax inflows. U.S. will probably see an increase in the cash society since folks will find ways to avoid higher taxes, hurting government coffers rather than helping. Multiple U.S. cities now experiencing budget fights and protests. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, went bankrupt recently. Governments are trying to reduce the burden of high union costs. Watch to see if California financial decisions spook the country; California is basically the same as Greece. State and Muni problems are a 2012 story. MUB daily and weekly charts were in negative divergence marking this as a significant price top for muni’s. Meredith Whitney should be vindicated moving forward.
· College/Student Debt Bubble: Students graduate with large debt and no job. Law students accumulate nearly 100K in loans and many remain jobless. Universities build lavish facilities that are unnecessary for education. One poll cited 80% of college graduates moving back home to live with parents. Student loan defaults have doubled since 2005. Two-thirds of students have $24K or more debt. No effect near term but in the months forward the loan defaults will develop into a big problem. Young folks without jobs are joining the ranks of the Occupy Wall Street movement since they have no productive outlet for their youthful energy. Now that State funding is being lost to colleges, tuition hikes are occurring, students now have to pay more for an education that no longer leads to a well-paying job. The high college debt coupled with no jobs is a double whammy for the young folks.
· China Property Bubble and China Contagion: When it pops, anytime now, it will be extremely negative on global markets causing contagion in Asia and elsewhere. Chinese factories are now going bankrupt. Traders that were positive of China’s continued growth are not so sure now. There are signs of growth slowing, bad real estate loans and fraudulent accounting by companies. Copper was used as collateral for some construction loans and the collapse in copper price may provide the catalyst for the China real estate collapse. 65 million homes are unoccupied in China, a glut of capacity of epic proportions. Europe is China’s major customer so the Euro woes will only accelerate China’s problems. China has built uninhabited cities to fuel their explosive growth during this century. China growth rates are trailing off, there are only so many empty cities that you can build. This is going to end very badly. Keystone agrees with Jim Chanos’ view on China. Watch the copper price to gauge China moving forward. China has to decide if they want to play a larger role in the world and help prop up the global mess. China may be supporting Greece behind the scenes to help buy Europe some time. China bubble pops=global markets down.
· PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) Rate Decisions and Policy: We are now one year along from the first rate hike in China in October 2010. First hike 25 bps 10/19/10; second hike 25 bps Christmas 12/25/10; third hike 25 bps China New Years on 2/8/11; fourth hike 25 bps 4/5/11; fifth hike 25 bips 7/7/11. China said in 2010 that it will project about five hikes into June 2011. Hikes have occurred October, December, February, April and now July, so China should hold steady for the weeks and months ahead. Currency decisions will probably be delayed until the new premier is selected in the back half of 2012. Bank reserve requirements are now ratcheting up continuously to slow down inflation but these appear to have less of an effect now. China’s bubble is now in the process of popping.
· China New Premier Selection: The new 5-year leader is chosen in 2012 (at the same time as the U.S. president) so major currency decisions will be avoided until then. Will it be a smooth transition?
· Emerging Market Rate Decisions and Policy: India, Brazil, Taiwan, South Korea most important. Same effects as China rate hikes; commodities will sell off. China, India and Brazil are most important to global markets. Watch India closely moving forward since they are still raising rates in conflict with their Asian peers. Each emerging country lowering rates here forward will escalate trade wars. Brazil lowered rates last week. Chairman Bernanke’s hot easy QE2 money pumped up emerging markets and commodities from August 2010 thru May 2011 creating new asset bubbles. India is now experiencing civil unrest as citizens demonstrate against corruption at all levels of government. India directly supports one-third of the global gold market and we are now in the marriage and holiday seasons for India and China. The gold sales do not appear to be living up to prior years. The negatively diverged gold charts and CME margin hikes should also continue to push gold prices lower. Watch India as a proxy for gold price. China consumes 40% or more of the world’s copper production. Watch China as a proxy for copper price.
· BOJ (Bank of Japan) Rate Decisions and Policy: BOJ hints at new measures coming to weaken the yen this week. Effects from the Japan tsunami and nuclear disaster are subsiding. Japan lowers growth projections moving forward. Japan is performing policy manipulation and coordinated currency intervention and defending the 76.5 dollar/yen level. Note, the dollar/yen has dropped under 76.5, look for some type of action this week. BOJ participated with other central banks on 8/15/11 to support Europe. Dollar/yen up=dollar up=euro down=commodities down=equities down.
· Government-Secured Enterprises (GSE’s) Impact: A decision will need to be made on extending the GSE limit of 730K; is it time to end this or will the limit be extended over and over again? This should hurt the market since the GSE’s back 9 of every 10 mortgages. Now folks will have to go elsewhere to seek financing where the down payments are 25 to 30% down. In essence, the demand will be reduced, thus, the market will tighten and house prices will continue lower moving forward. Keystone’s proprietary algorithm shows that housing has already fallen back into a double dip as of mid-May 2011. This is deflationary behavior giving Chairman Bernanke many sleepless nights. Keystone considers real estate to be a key investment over the next year or two but prices have much lower to fall first. Low rates do not help the housing recovery since folks do not have jobs. If they do have a job, they may not have a good credit score. If they do have a good credit score, then they cannot come up with the 25% and higher down payments. Perhaps the washout in housing will occur in 2012 and 2013, which should provide the ideal time to buy property.
· Oil Economic Impact: Oil effects gasoline price which in turn affects retail sales. OPEC, the SPR (Strategic Oil reserve) and hurricane season effect oil price. SPR oil release is no longer an issue as oil price has fallen due to lower global demand. Hurricane season is in its final throes so any oil price premium is working itself back out. Brent Oil price is now more important than WTIC (West Texas). Oil price moves with the equities markets; up oil=up markets and visa versa.
· Mother Nature/Crop Reports: Droughts, storms, floods, earthquakes, tsunami’s, volcanic ash, hurricane’s and the like. Mother Nature had a huge impact on food inflation over the last year. Continue to monitor the drought in Texas and the southern States as well as floods and other mayhem. Food and oil are the most affected. As the crop reports improve, the premium to price comes back out.
· Eclipse Selloff Target Areas: Allow plus or minus a week or two on each side of the following dates as potential areas of major market selloffs; 5/15/11 (large sell off occurred May-June); 7/15/11 (large sell off occurred 7/8 thru 7/18 then the crash the week of 8/1/11); 11/3/11 area is next (watch mid October thru mid November); then 1/3/12. Note how the May and July targets were spot on. This technique now targets late October thru early to mid November area as a potential large market selloff area.
· Bradley Turn Dates: 10/28/11 (this date matches up with the eclipse sell off projection), pay close attention now thru 11/4/11, especially 10/25/11 thru 11/2/11; 11/22/11-11/23/11; 12/28/11 (major turn area); 1/11/12. Typically allow a +/- 7 day window with actual turns usually occurring in closer to the actual date, say +/- 3 day window. Markets more than likely change their trends, if headed up, they reverse down, or if they have been moving down in the previous days, they reverse up. Every now and then, however, the markets will melt up or down in an acceleration move of the current trend. Dates are courtesy of Donald Bradley, Peter Eliades and Arch Crawford; reference their web sites for additional information.
· Solar Flares, Full and New Moons: Definitely not something to trade off of but you must be aware of their influence. Solar flares have not been an issue except for a brief event in August, but the projections are for the flares to increase in the years ahead. Solar flare activity tends to coincide with market selling events. There are studies on full moon and new moon effects that will tout both sides of the coin. In Keystone’s non-scientific studies, full moons tend to be in line with buying and new moons tend to be in line with selling, but only about a 60% to 65% correlation; a slight advantage over a coin flip. Full moon was last Tuesday, 10/11/11, which was a buoyant week. New moon is 10/26/11 which interestingly, coincides with both the Bradley turn date window and Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator, and all of these coincide with the FOMC and ECB rate meetings and deadline for the Merkozy deal, targeting the last week of October and first week of November to be quite exciting. Next full moon is 11/10/11.
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